Future of the German Navy

Fewer and Bigger !

Cartography:
Of the entire german land aera, 2,4% (7,798 km2 (3,011 sq mi)) were of water (rivers/lakes).
German EEZ: 4,500 km2 In the Baltic Sea and 28 600 km2 In the North Sea.

Personnal Strenght: +/- 24 000
+/- 20 000 regular and +/- 3500 Conscript

+/- 15 Destroyers/Frigates (toward only 11 but bigger ships):
Up to 4 F-125
7000+ tons, 149 meters, land-oriented large frigates, intended to replace the entire Bremen (type 122) class frigate. All four to be commissioned by 2015-2019. With probable +/- 30 years of service, to be retired around 2045/2050.

3 Sachsen (F-124)
(Sachsen, Hamburg, Hessen), 5600 tons, 143 meters AAW frigate design. Commissioned by 2003/2006. With probable +/- 30 years of service, to be retired around 2030/2036.

4 Brandenburg (F123)
(Brandenburg, Schleswig-Holstein, Bayern, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern). 4900 tons, 138 meters multi-purpose frigate design. Commissioned by 1994-1996. With probable +/- 30 years of service, to be retired around 2024/2026. Likely to be replaced by fewer but larger (and more capable) warships........maybe replaced by 2 to 4 improved MEKO D 500/600 design ???....Wait & See

8 Bremen (F122)
(Bremen, Niedersachen, Rheinland, Emden, Koln,Karlsruhe, Augsburg, Lubeck). 3600 tons, 130 meters frigates. Commissioned by 1982-1990. Now all expected to be retired during 2010’s and partially replaced by only four Type 125 frigates.

5 (+6 ?) Corvettes:
5 Braunschweig (K130)
(Braunschweig, Magdeburg, Erfurt, Oldenburg, Ludwigshafen am Rheim). 1800 tons, 89 meters corvette design. This design experienced some early problems (gearing systems & so…). Commissioned by 2008/2011.

Up to 6 K-131 ?
Maybe expected by 2018+-2025 ?, very likely 2 main designs under study :
- MEKO® "CSL" (Littorals Warfare): 108m, 2750 t, >40 kts, steel hull, composite superstructure.
- MEKO® "FUSION": 84 m, 1500 t, >40 kts, composite hull & superstructure.
Future of this program was uncertain...

10 Fast Attack Crafts:
10 Gepard class (Type 143A)
(Gepard, Puma, Hermelin, Nerz, Nobel, Frettchen, Dachs, Ozelot, Wiesel, Hyane). 390 tons, 57 meters FAC design. Commissioned by 1982/1984, with probable +/- 30 year of life expected, to be retired by 2012-2019 and replaced by fewer but larger K-131 corvettes ?

4 (+2) Submarines
Up to 6 U-31 (Type 212)
(U-31, U-32, U-33, U-34). Two others units (U-35, U-36) were currently on completion stage. 1400/1800 tons, 56+ meters SSK. All six commissioned by 2005/2012, with +/- 30 years of life, to be retired around 2035/2040.

+/- 19 Mine-Hunters
5 Ensdorf class (type 352)
(Ensdorf, Auerbach, Hameln, Pegnitz, Siegburg). 650 tons, 54+ meters. Commissioned by 1989-1991.

5 Kulmbach class (type 333)
(Kulmbach, Uberhem, Passau, Laboe, Herten). 635 tons, 54+ meters. Commissioned by 1989-1991.

9 Frankenthal class (type 332)
(Bad-Bevensen, Bad-Rappenau, Gromits, Datteln, Dilingen, Homburg, Sulzbach, Fulda, Weilheim). 650 tons, 54+ meters. Commissioned by 1993-1998.

These 19 MCM ships, commissioned by 1989/1998 (with probably +/- 30 years of service), must be replaced around 2018/2030 by fewer (10 to 12 ?) and bigger ships (very likely a newer MEKO 2000 tons flexible ship)

Up to 2 Joint Support Ships (aka LHD or LPD ?):
By 2025, up to 2 large flexible ships was expected, some options:
- JSS 400 (> 20 000 tons, 400 troops, but not large supply onboard).
- JSS 400+ (< 20 000 tons, 400 troops, and large supply onboard). - JSS 800 (< 27 000 tons, 800 troops, likely pure LHD/LHA design). The current MRD/MHD 150/MHD 200 were likely a initial design study. This program is +/- uncertain, wait & see...
Small Amphibious:
4 LCM
2 LCU (type 521)

2 (+1) Replenishment ships
2 (+1) Berlin class (Type 702)
(Berlin, Frankfurt am Main). A third ship (Bonn) was ordered. 20 000 tons, 173 meters. The first two were commissioned by 2001/2002. The third ships (with some improvement), was expected to be commissioned by 2013+.

+/- 10 Support-Ships
2 Rhon class (type 704A)
(Rhon, Spessart). 14 000+ tons, commissioned by 1977. With probable 30+ years of service, to be retired very soon, by early/mid 2010’s.

2 Walchensee class (type 703)
(Ammersee, Tegemsee). 2000+ tons, 74 meters coastal tanker. Commissioned by 1967. Now no longer in service.

6 Elbe class (type 404)
(Elbe, Mosel, Rhein, Werra, Main, Donau). 3500 tons, 100 meters. Commissioned by 1993-1994. With probable 30 years of service, to be retired around mid 2020’s.

3 Intelligence ships
3 Oste class (type 422)
(Oste, Oker, Alster ), 3200 tons, 83 meters. Commissioned by 1988/1989, likely to be retired by late 2010's/mid 2020's.

Tugs
2 Wangerooge (type 722)
(Wangerooge, Spiekeroog, Langeoog, Baltrum, Juist), 800 tons, 52 meters. Commissioned by 1968/1971. To be retired soon...

Naval aviation +/- 2000
Helicopters:
+/- 22 Sea-Lynx Mk 88
+/- 21 Sea-King Mk 41 (no longer in service)

Aircrafts:
8 P-3C Orion (Ex-Dutch)
2 Do-288 LM
6 Camcopter S-100 UAV in order

The German Navy, after an initial sharp reduction after the end of the Cold-War (1991-2000), is undergoing a further profound and deeply reduction of its forces. Newer Warships are fewer, but larger, for overseas deployements...

Next fleet review/editorial: Future of the Argentinian Navy.

As usual, It may be that in my opinion, I forgot programs ? (or made few mistakes ?, especially for the auxiliary and smaller coast-guards ships), then said it ! Feel free to comment and give your opinion !

Future of the Dutch Navy

Always very advanced, but with a reduced fleet...

Cartography:
Of the entire Dutch land aera, 18,41% (7,643 km2 (2,951 sq mi)) were of waters.
Coastline: 451 km (280 mi), and a EEZ aera of 68,783 km2 In the Dutch Antilles.

Personnal Strenght: +/- 10 000
+/- 7 000 sailors; +/- 2500 marines; +/- 800 naval aviation

4 AAW Destroyers
4 De Zeven Provinciën
(De Zeven Provinciën, Tromp, De Ruyter, Evertsen). 6000 tons, 144 meters highly effective AAW frigate. Commissioned by 2002-2005. Currently expected to be fully modernized (TBMD capable ship). With probable 30+ years of life expected, to be retired around 2032-2040.

2 Frigates
2 Karel Doorman class
(Van Speijk, Van Amstel), 3000 tons, 122 meters multi-purpose frigate. Well designed during the 1980’s. Currently under heavy upgrade (newer sensors/mast) to remain in service until 2020-2025.

Up to 4 Ocean Patrol Vessels
4 Holland
(Holland, Zeeland, Friesland, Groningen). 3000+ tons, 108 meters OPV design, with very advanced sensors/mast suit. To be commissioned by 2011/2012, with probable 25/30 years of service expected. To be retired around 2035/2040.

2 Large Amphibious assault ships
1 Rotterdam
(Rotterdam). 12000+ tons, 166 meters LPD designed in collaboration with Spain. Commissioned by 1998. With probable 25+ years of service expected, to be retired around mid 2020’s.

1 Johan de Witt
(Johan de Witt). 16800 tons, 176 meters, enlarged Rotterdam LPD design. Commissioned by 2007, with probable 25/30 years of life expected, to be retired around 2030/2035+.

Nota:
The future JSS will have some amphibious capabilities .

3 Submarines
3 Walrus class
(Walrus, Zeeleeuw, Dolfijn), 1900/2300 tons, 67 meters SSK. A fourth SSK (Bruinvis) were in reserve. Designed by late 1970’s/mid 1980’s (after some requirement modification). Commissioned by 1992/1994. With a probable 30+ years of life. Currently some upgrades (sensors/sonars) were planned. To be retired probably around 2025-2030. Their replacement is “uncertain”

10 Mine-Hunters
10 Alkmaar class
(Haarlem, Maasluis, Makkum, Middelburg, Hellevoetsluis, Schiedam, Urk, Zierikzee, Vlaardingen, Willemstad). 600 tons, 53 meters Tripartite Mine-hunters. All commissioned by 1982/1989. 3 to be converted to control vessels for mine-sweep drones. All to be retired by mid 2010's/mid 2020's and replaced by fewer, bigger and more versatile ships.

2 Replenishment Ships
Up to 1 Zuiderkruis JSS
28 000 tons, 204 meters, newer highly advanced flexible ships (fleet tanker/cargo/amphibious/command ship). Currently under construction, to be completed by 2014.

1 Zuiderkruis class
(Zuiderkruis), 17 000 tons, 170 meters fleet tankers. Commissioned by 1975. To be retired by 2012-2014 and replaced by a newer JSS flexible ships

1 Amsterdam class
(Amsterdam), 17 000 tons, 166 meters fleet tankers. Commissioned by 1995

5 Others supports ships
4 Cerberus class (diving support)
(Cerberus, Argus, Nautilus, Hydra)

1 Mercuur class (Torpedo recovery)
(Mercuur)

2 Hydrographical survey ships
2 Snellius class (hydrographical survey)
(Snellius, Luymes)

2 Training ships
1 Van Kinsbergen class
(Van Kinsbergen)

1 Urania class (sailing)
(Urania)

27 Medium/Small Landing crafts
5 L9525 LCU Mk2
(L9525, L9526, L9527, L9528, L9529) All crafts of these class have been upgraded. This upgrade meant enlarging the vessels and increasing their payload (enabling the craft to transport the Royal Netherlands Army's Leopard 2 A6).

12 LCVP Mk5c
Built by Visser Shipyard in Den Heler in 2009-2010

4 LCVP Mk3
(L9537, L9538, L9540, L9541). 2 others (L 9536, 9539 were retired by January 2010)

6 LCVP Mk2
(L9530, L9531, L9532, L9533, L9534, L9535)

18 Tugs and others harbor ships
5 Linge class large tugs.
(Linge, Regge, Hunze, Rotte, Gouwe)

2 Breezand class harbor tugs
(Breezand, Bergzand)

5 Schelde class harbor working boats
(Schelde, Wierbalg, Malzwin, Zuidwal, Westwal)

1 Patria class inshore tanker
(Patia)

1 Nieuwediep class touring boat
(Nieuwediep)

2 harbor vessels
(Y8200, Y8300)

1 Jonge Jan class harbor vessel
(Jonge Jan)

1 Jonge Prins class harbor vessel
(Jonge Prins)

Small crafts
29 Fast Raiding, Interception and Special Forces Craft
(11 for Special Operation use, 12 for use in the Dutch territories in the Caribbean and 6 to use in combination with the new Holland Class OPV's).

17 Fast raiding, Interception and special forces craft
(for use as small landing crafts).

Dutch Squadron for the Netherlands Antilles
1 Pelikaan logistic support vessel (amphibious & diving operations and transport), 1100+ tons, 65 meters, commissioned by 2006

3 patrol cutters
(Jaguar, Panter, Poema)

Naval helicopters (+/- 900 personnals)
10 SH-14 D Lynx still operationnal due to life prolonging maintenance (21-24 initially delivered by late 1970's-late 1980's).

Up to 12 NH-90 NFH
Expected to replace all ageing Lynx helico. All operationnal by 2015.

Dutch Marine Corps (+/- 3000 troops)
Armored vehicles
156 BV206S (127 will get a Mid-Life Update, the rest will be disposed of or sold).
74 BVS10.
20 XA-188 (11 to be sold to Estonia, the rest will be disposed of or sold).
4 Leopard 1 BARV beach armored recovery vehicles.

Unarmored vehicles
Land Rover Defender
40 Mercedes-Benz 280 CDI
17 Unimog 1.2-ton truck
Various DAF trucks

Artillery (Mortars)
60mm (Brandt MO-60-V); 81mm (L16A2); 120mm (RT-120).

The Dutch Fleet now has a reduced size. This allows to have a maximum of 1 or 2 large warships (Destroyers/Frigates/OPV) constantly in overseas ops (a NATO requirement ?). But this size corresponds to the importance of this country in this world.

Next fleet review/editorial: Future of the German Navy.

As usual, It may be that in my opinion, I forgot programs ? (or made few mistakes ?), then said it ! Feel free to comment and give your opinion !

Future of the Swedish Navy

Initially intended to coastal defense, but things will change...

Majors Thanks to "Per-Nordenberg" for his BIG help :)

Cartography
Coastlines:
3218 km (2000 mi); Of the entire Swedish land aera, 39,960 km² (8.69%), were of Water (95 700+ lakes/rivers).

Personnal Strength (max):
Navy: 4,280; Naval brigade: 1,300

5 Submarines (+ 2 planned) :
2 A-26
1900 tons, in advanced stage of planning, to be delivered 2018-19 and replace the two Södermanland boats.

3 Gotland A-19
(Gotland, Halland, Uppland), commissioned 1999, 60,6 meters, Stirling AIP, Gotland to be decommissioned in the near future (and sold to Singapore?), Halland and Uppland to go through a mid-life modernization 2010-12, to be retired 2035 (and replaced by a further two A-26 boats?).

2 Södermanland modified A-17
(Södermanland, Östergötland), commissioned 1989-90, completely rebuilt and lengthened with Stirling AIP module 2003-04, to be retired 2018-19 and replaced by the two A-26 boats, might be sold to Singapore (RSN already have two near sisters).

6 (3 being completed, + 2 planned, + 2 in reserve) corvettes:
2 K40
1500-2800 tons, to be delivered mid 2020's and replace the two modernized Göteborg corvettes.

2 (+3 on trials) Visby
(Helsingborg, Härnösand), 640 tons, 73 meters, commissioned in 2010 in version 4 without missiles or torpedoes, to be outfitted in final version 5 with SSM and torpedoes 2012-13. (Visby, Nyköping, Karlstad), 640 tons, 73 meters, to be commissioned in version 5 with SSM and torpedoes 2012-13.

2 (+2 reserve) Göteborg
(Gävle, Sundsvall), 400 tons, 57 meters, commissioned 1991 and 1993, planned go through a mid-life modernization with somewhat reduced ambition in 2012-13, to be retired mid 2020's.[(Göteborg, Kalmar), 400 tons, 57 meters, commissioned in 1990-91, decommissioned 2005-06 and laid up in reserve, planned to be converted to surveillance boats without SSM and torpedoes to replace/complement an old surveillance boat and 12 Tapper coastal patrol boats mid 2010's.]

2 Stockholm
(Stockholm, Malmö), 380 tons, 50 meters, commissioned in 1985, completely rebuilt and modernized in 2000-02, to be retired mid 2010's.

1 Patrol ship:
1 Carlskrona
(Carlskrona), 3550 tons, 105,7 meters, commissioned 1982 as minelayer and midshipmen training ship, converted to command ship 2002-03, converted to patrol ship 2009-10, to be converted to support ship, to be retired 2018.

1 Surveillance boat:
1 Jägaren (Jägaren)
150 tons, 36,5 meters, commissioned 1972, originally built as prototype for the Hugin class fast patrol boats, converted to surveillance boat 1988 with reduced armament, sensors, machinery and crew, to be retired mid 2010's.

12 Coastal patrol boats:
12 Tapper
(Tapper, Djärv, Dristig, Händig, Trygg, Modig, Hurtig, Rapp, Stolt, Ärlig, Munter, Orädd), 60 tons, 22 meters, commissioned 1993-99, equipped with ASW sensors and weapons, to be retired 2018-2024?

3 Coastal minelayers:
1 Furusund
(Furusund), 240 tons, 30 meters, commissioned 1983, modified and mainly used as diving and salvage vessel, to be retired mid or late 2010's?.

2 MUL 12 type
(Grundsund, Fårösund), 245 tons, 31 meters, commissioned 1952-56, Grundsund belong to Naval Brigade, to be retired mid 2010's?

7 Minehunters/sweepers:
5 Koster
(Koster, Kullen, Vinga, Ven, Ulvön), 360 tons, 47,5 meters, commissioned in 1986-92, mid-life modernization in 2008-10, to be retired 2028-30.

2 Styrsö
(Styrsö, Skaftö), 200 tons, 36 meters, commissioned in 1996-97, were to go through a mid-life modernization but will now be phased out.

2 Mine clearence diver support ships:
2 Spårö
(Spårö, Sturkö), 205 tons, 36 meters, commissioned in 1996-97, rebuilt as mine clearence divers support ships in 2004-05 while retaining minehunting capability, to be retired 2020-21?

1 Drone minesweeper:
1 MRD-STOR
(Sökaren), 129 tons, 26 meters, commissioned in 2001, used for trials.

5 Drone mine countermeasures craft:
5 SAM 01
(SAM 01, SAM 02, SAM 03, SAM 04, SAM 05), 20 tons, 18 meters, commissioned in 1983 (SAM 01-02, 04) and 1992 (SAM 03 and 05), radio-controlled drones.

1 Mine warfare tender:
1 Ägir
(Ägir), 240 tons, 24,5 meters, commissioned 1984.

1 Intelligence collection ship:
1 Orion
(Orion), 1400 tons, 61,3 meters, commissioned in 1984, limited life extension 2010 for another 5-6 years.

2 (1 planned + 1 in reserve) support ships:
1 L 10 planned
13000 - 15000 tons, 145 - 160 meters, with limited amphibious and helicopter capability, to replace Trossö mid 2010's.[(Visborg). 2590 tons, 92 meters, commissioned as minelayer in 1976, converted to support ship 1998, decommissioned 2010, possibly to be sold to Chile.]

1 support tender:
1 Trossö
(Trossö), 2554 tons, 74,5 meters, commissioned 1988 as a Soviet oceanographic ship, bought from Estonia and converted to support tender 1997, to be replaced by L 10 mid 2010's.

1 Submarine rescue and salvage ship:
1 Belos
(Belos), 5600 tons, 105 meters, commissioned in 1985 as an oilfield supply and diver support vessel, bought 1992 and converted.

2 sonobuoy monitoring boats:
2 Ejdern
(Ejdern, Krickan), 36 tons, 19 meters, commissioned in 1991 and decommissioned in 2004 (together with two sisters), apparently recommissioned since.

7 training ships:

2 Gladan
(Gladan, Falken), 225 tons, 39 meters, sail-training schooners commissioned in 1947, used for training of cadets.

5 Altair
(Altair, Antares, Arcturus, Argo, Astrea), 85 tons, 26 meters, commissioned 2008-09, can be quickly converted for patrol or for sonobuoy monitoring, to be retired 2033-34.

~140 Combat boats:
~140 CB 90H
(803-907), 20,5 tons, 15,9 meters, commissioned 1991-97, belong to Naval Brigade, to start retire late 2010's?

Naval aviation:
Helicopters:
- Up to 5 NH 90 NFH ordered, to be delivered in 2014-15.
- 8 A-109 Agusta (can be temporarily based on the Visby corvettes)
(In addition some of the Air Force Super Pumas can be available for search and rescue)

The Swedish navy, despite its small size and geographic location (Restricted and Shallow Baltic Sea), has always had high-tech ships and equipment.

Historically, the Navy was directed to a coastal fleet. But the next acquisition programs (heavy corvettes/ supply vessels) will begin to change that.

The "Future of the Russian Navy" (Part 1 & 2) is "keel laid down" and in "advanced building process" for months, but personnal problems prevent me continually to make this blog much more seriously/deeply.
Also note that despite my problems, I have many ideas to improve this blog. Facebook & Twitter "Combat-Fleets" accounts are already launched, but I lack time to feed them regularly !
Be Patient, thanks ;)

Future of the Mexican Navy

Think up to EEZ and OPV, but no more...

Cartography
Coastlines: 9330 Km (6,338 km on the Pacific Ocean, 2,805 kilometers on the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea).
Mexico's EEZ covers +/- 2.7 million square kilometers, of witch 6,000 square kilometers of islands in the Pacific Ocean/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea/Gulf of California.

Personnal Strenght (max): +/- 46/56 000
Sailors: +/- 30/40 000; Naval Aviation: 1250; Mexican Marines: 12 600.

Destroyers/Frigates (a great joke !)
1 Netzahualcoyotl:
(Netzahualcoyotl), ex US Gearing class destroyers built by 1944/1945 ! Transferred by 1982, totally obsolete since late 1970’s (and this although heavily modernized !) and was virtually a floating naval museum !!! Current status unclear, likely not to be replaced and maybe ? returned to the US navy as a naval museum ship or scrapped ?…

2 Hermenegildo- Galeana:
(Nicolas-Bravo, Hermenegildo-Galeana), 2300/2900 tons, 113 meters, ex US Bronstein FFG of early 1960’s, Transferred by 1993 but totally obsolete since early 1990’s…currently mainly used for training. Likely to be partially replaced by few “second-hands” O.H.Perry FFG through the 2010’s.

4 Ignacio-Allende:
(Ignacio-Allende, Mariano-Abasolo, Guadalupe-Victoria, Amiral Francesco Javier-Mina), 4000+ tons, 134 meters, ex US Knox FFG of early 1970’s. Transferred by 1997/2002 but totally obsolete since late 1990’s…currently mainly used as a gunboats-ocean patrol vessels. Likely to be partially replaced by few O.H.Perry FFG through 2010’s

Up to 6 O.H.Perry FFG ?:
It is clear that with the expected withdrawal of all (30) US O.H. Perry FFG frigates in the U.S. Navy during 2011-2018's. The Mexican Navy is expected to receive ? 4 to 6 ageing “second-hands” O.H Perry Frigates around 2015/2020, to replace obsoletes 1940/1960’s ex US ships……

+/- 22 (+11) Ocean/Off­-shore Patrol boats (the real workhorse of the Oceanic Mexican fleet !!!):
Up to 4 newer Mexican OPV ?:
With the current “mexican policy” about OPV, it is very probable that up to 4 newer OPV (improved “Oaxaca") were built by late 2010’s to replace the most older OPV’s.

4 Oaxaca:
(Oaxaca, Baja-California, Independencia, Revolucion). 1600+ tons, 86 meters, enlarged version of Durango class. Commissioned by 2003/2010. With probable +/- 30 year of service expected, to be retired by 2033/2040. Maybe ? 2 others planned by 2015

4 Durango:
(Durango, Sonora, Guanajuato, Veracruz), 1100/1300+ tons, 74 meters. Improved from Holzinger class, commissioned by 2000/2001, likely to be retired around 2030.

4 Sierra (Holzinger 2000) class:
(Justo-Sierra-Mendez, Benito-Juarez, Guillermo-Prieto, Matias-Romero), 1100/1300+ tons, 74 meters. Improved from Agula/Holzinger class, Commissioned by 1999, likely to be retired around 2030.

4 Aguila (Holzinger):
(Sebastian-Jose-Holzinger, Blas-Godinez, José-Maria-De la Vega, Felipe-Berriozabal), 1000+ tons, 74 meters improved from Uribe class, commissioned by 1991/1994, with probable +/- 30 year of service expected, to be retired by 2021/2024.

6 Halcon/Uribe:
(Virgilo-Uribe, Jose-Azueta, Pedro-Sainz de Barbanda, Carlos- Castillo-Breton, Othon-Blanco, Angel-Ortiz-Monasterio), 980+ tons, 67 meters. commissioned by 1982/1983. Initially with probable +/- 30 year of service expected, but now likely life extended to remain in service until late 2010’s.

11 Valle:
(Juan de la Barrera, Mariano Escobedo, Manuel Doblado, Santos Degollado, Juan N Alvarez, Manuel Gutierrez Zamora, Valentin Gomez Farias, Ignacio L Vallarta, Jesus Gonsalez Ortega, Mariano Matamoros). 850+ tons, 67 meters, Ex US minesweepers from 1942-1945 !!! (Auk class) transferred by 1972/1973. Obsolete since early 1980’s and now totally worn out (some may be unserviceable). All likely to be retired throught the 2010"s.

2 Fast attack missile crafts
2 Huracan:
(Huracan, Tormenta). 500 tons, 61 meters. Ex Israeli Sa-ar’ 4.5 (late 1970’s built). Transferred by 2004. Likely with +/- 20 year of Mexican service, to be retired around mid 2020’s.

+/- 27 Mid-Shore Patrol Boats:
20 Azteca:
(Cordova, Rayon, Rejon, De la Fuente, Guzman, Ramirez, Mariscal, Jara, Colima, Lizardi, Mugica, Velazco, Macias, Tamaulipas, Yucatan, Tabasco, Cochimie, Puebla, Vicario, Ortiz). Some others already retired. 115/160 tons, 36 meters, very lightly constructed. Commissioned by 1974/1982, with probable +/- 25 years of service (usually much more in Mexican service), likely to remain in service until late at least late 2010’s.

2 Democrata:
(Democrata, Francisco I Madero). 400+ tons, 52 meters. Commissioned by 1998/2007. Partially intended to replace few obsolete Valle (ex US Auk) minesweepers/patrol-ships.

3 Cabo:
(Corrientes, Corzo, Catoche). 87 tons, 29 meters (ex us cape Higgon class patrol boats). Transferred by 1990/1991, with probable 25+ year of service (usually much more in mexican service). Likely to be retired by early 2020’s.

2 Punta:
(Punta Morro, Punta Mastun). 64 tons, 25+ meters (ex US coast-guard Point class, built early 1960’s). Transferred by 1991, maybe retired throught 2020's ?.

+/- 152 Inshore Patrol Vessels/Patrol crafts
+/- 8 Acuario:
Improved & "mexicanised" version of the CB-90HMN, 19 tons, 16 meters. Commissioned from 2004. Maybe others planned ?

+/- 44 Stridsbat CB 90 HMN:
13/20 tons, 15+ meters. Highly versatile small craft. The Mexican Navy obtained a production license in 2002 to build more (improved) crafts in Mexico, commissioned by 2000/2004.

+/- 40 Interceptor class (35foot):
10+ meters. Locally designed/built. Commissioned from 1998+…

4 XFPD:
52 tons, 25 meters. Commissioned by 1993/1994.

+/- 36 Piranha riverine crafts:
1,6 tons, 6+ meters.

13 Olmeca:
18 tons, 16+ meters. US 1980’s built, all crafts transferred by 1993.

3 Polimar:
57 tons, 20 meters. Built by 1953/1968.

2 Lago riverine crafts:
37 tons, 17+ meters. Built by 1959/1961.

2 L-Type (64foot):
72 tons, 19+ meters. Ex-US (built 1950’s), transferred by 1989/1990.

+/- 6 Oceanographic research ships:
1 Onjuku:
(Onjuku), 500 tons, 36 meters. Ex-Trawler acquired in 1987.

1 Alejandro de Humboldt:
(Alejandro de Humboldt), 580+ tons, 42+ meters. Former german trawler acquired in 1982 end recommissioned by 1987.

1 Rio Ondo:
(Rio Ondo), 400 tons, 36 meters. Ex-US ship tug/supply vessel built in 1950’s. Acquired by 1995.

1 Altair:
(Altair), 1200 tons, 63 meters. Ex-US ship, recommissioned by 1984.

1 Rio-Suchiate:
(Rio-Suchiate), 1100+ tons, 58 meters. Ex-US water lighter ship (1943 built).

1 Antares:
(Antares), 1200 tons, 63 meters. EX-US ship, transferred by 1992.

+/- 3 Cargo-ships:
1 Maya
(Maya) , 900+ tons, 48 meters. Former lighthouse supply vessel acquired by 1988.

2 Huasteco:
1800+ tons, 72 meters. Specially built ship commissioned by 1986.

+/- 3 medium/large Amphibious:
2 Papaloapan:
(Papaloapan, Usumacinta). Ex US Newport class LST (late 1960’s builts), transferred by 2001. Likely to remain in Mexican service until mid/late 2020’s.

1 Vincente Guerrero:
(Vicente Guerrero). Ex US 1945 built LST, transferred by 1973.

6+ Fleets tugs:
6 ocean tugs:
No data available.

4 olders ex us fleet tugs:
(US 1943/1944 built), in uncertain status.

1 Sailing ships
Cuauhtemoc
(Cuauhtemoc), 1200 tons, 90 meters, built 1982.
Status of a ageing training ship (ex us 1940’s mineweesper) was unclear.

Others small & various crafts:
- +/- 108 RHIB.
- Various floating cranes, floating dry dock, barges & so…

Mexican Army:
+/- 144 riverine crafts (25 sport-class):
7+ meters.

Mexican Coast Guards (+/- 50)
A handfull of small crafts.

Mexican Naval Infantry : 12 600 troops.
- Guns: 16 M-56 (105mm towed); 6 Firos-25 (122mm multi-rockets launchers); 100 mortars (60/81mm); Some 106mm recoiless guns (M-40A1).
- Armored vehicles: 25 Pegaso VAP-3550
- Amphibious vehicles: 29 APC-60/70.
- Others: - +/- 400 Commando (F.Nal/M-35/Ural), 81 Jeep.

Naval Aviation (a very unusual large fleet, estimation)
+/- 73 Aircrafts:
- 18 RECO: (8 Casa 212-200M Aviocar; 3 E-2C Hawkeye; 7 Lancair IV-P).
- 24 TRANSPORTS: (6 AN-32B Cline; 1 DHC-8 Dash 8; 2 Rockwell sabreliner 306; 3 Learjet 24; 5 Rockwell Turbo Commander 1000; 2 Beech 90 King Air; 1 Cessna 404 Titan; 4 Beech 55 Baron).
- 31 TRAINING: (4 Beech F-33 Bonanza; 8 Z-242L; 7 L-90 Redigo; 12 MX-7 Star Rocket).

+/- 54 Helicopters:
- 2 ASW (2AS-565 MB Panther).
- 7 RECO (7 MD-902 Explorer.
- 24 TRANSPORTS (3 PZL Mi-2 Hoplite; 21 Mi-17 Hip H/Mi-8 Hip).
- 21 VARIOUS: (2/3 AS-555 Fennec; 11 Bo-105; 4 MD-500E; 2 R-22 Mariner; 1 R-44).

In resume:
The Mexican Navy has no fear of serious threats from small coastal Belize/Guatemala/Cuba navies. At the same time, obviously, it can never compete with the U.S. Navy. In fact, it is clear that the main threats to the Mexican Navy are internal weaknesses of Mexico :
- Very strong internal corruption.
- Very strong influence of drug cartels.
- Very strong internal violence/high-crime.
- Low-threat from Internal-civilians/foreign ships (trawlers plundering the fish stocks…).
- Internal threat from some separatism.
- Pollution.

These threats can be fight only with "less impressive" means :
- Intelligence (always, as usual).
- Internal fight against bureaucracy/internal corruption.
It also seems clear that the Mexican Naval Aviation suffers from this bureaucratic corruption (just see how many different models of planes and helicopters in service...)
- Use of Ocean PatrolVessel, Mid-Shore Patrol Vessel, Inshore-Patrol-Vessel.
- Use of Maritime Patrol Aircraft/Helicopters and UAV’s.

As usual, It may be that in my opinion, I forgot programs ? (or made few mistakes ?), then said it ! Feel free to comment and give your opinion !

Next Fleet-Review/Edito :
Future of the Russian Navy (Part-1): combattants ships
Wait & please to be patient with the next Fleet-Review posting….

Warships Damage

This page is YOUR "Warships Damage" page. You can “contribute” to my blog by adding Warships (1950-present) damage data (Warships name/class, date, number & kind of hits substained, damage levels). These figures allow us to see the current (& future ?) capability for a +/- modern warships design to withstand multiple hits…Don’t hesitate to help me by put your information ! (I valid comments whenever I can, usually every one or two days)

Obviously only Warships Damage Data..., page to be progressively updated with your link/data...

Warships Cost

This page is YOUR "Warships-Cost" page. You can “contribute” to my blog by adding (ie= add comments) warships cost data. Don’t hesitate to help me by put your information ! (I valid comments whenever I can, usually every one or two days). Very interesting data, these figures allow us to see the financial importance of each type/class of warship.

See the following exemple please:

"Cost for the Italian Cavour CVL":

http://digilander.libero.it/en_mezzi_militari/html/en_cavour.html

Warships Purchases

This page is YOUR warships "Procurement/Deal" page. You can “contribute” to my blog by adding (ie="add comments") News (Warships Deal/Expected Procurement). Don’t hesitate to help me by put your information ! (I valid comments whenever I can, usually every one or two days).

PS: If your news are identical (same subjects) than those treated in some of my “fleet-review”, please, put your news in these “fleets reviews” (“add comments”, these will help me to update subsequently my edito’s).

Obviously only Current Warships Deal/Purchase related to Warships/Military Activities. No politics please unless it relates to the latter. Spammers will be blocked…

See the following exemple please:

"S Korea bids for Brazilian warships project":

http://www.brahmand.com/news/S-Korea-bids-for-Brazilian-warships-project/5519/3/13.html

Warships-News

This page is YOUR “Warships-News” page. You can “contribute” to my blog by adding (ie="add comments") News (Warships Deal/Expected Procurement, Naval-Drills, Naval-Disasters/Action, Pirates & So…). Don’t hesitate to help me by put your information ! (I valid comments whenever I can, usually every one or two days).

PS: If your news are identical (same subjects) than those treated in some of my “Combat-Fleets-Review”, please, put your news in these “Fleets-Reviews” (“add comments”, these will help me to update subsequently my edito’s).

Obviously only Current Warships News related to Warships/Military Activities. No politics please unless it relates to the latter. Spammers will be blocked…

See the two exemple please:

"South Korea Rejects China Call for Talks as Naval Drills Begin":

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-11-28/south-korea-rejects-china-call-for-talks-as-naval-drills-begin.html

"S Korea bids for Brazilian warships project":

http://www.brahmand.com/news/S-Korea-bids-for-Brazilian-warships-project/5519/3/13.html

Future of the Royal-Navy...growing concerns...

6 months ago that I wrote a 1st editorial on the future of the royal navy. By the October 19, the British government released its (infamous) 2010 Stategic Defense & Security Review (SDSR). I waited some more weeks (because the bad news arrives continuously) before +/- completing this editorial…

Picture credit: "Save the Royal-Navy.Org", more here

Carthography: (the only thing that can not be reduced…)

Coastline: 12 429 km (mainland coastline).
The UK EEZ is the eighth largest in the world, with a grand total (overseas territories included) of 6,805 million sq km (or 2,62 million sq mi)

Personnal Strenght:
+/- 39 100 regulars (+ 3600 volunteers; up to 19500 reserve).
Under the current 2010 SDSR, +/- 30 000 as expected by 2015 and ? likely +/- 27 000 by early 2020’s.

Aircraft-Carriers (THE TOMB OF THE ROYAL-NAVY ?)
Sunset of the Invincible class
As long expected, obviously, HMS Invincible, retired by mid-2005, will never sail again (he was progressively cannibalized by 2005/2009 to provide spare-parts for the two others active light carriers, and this despite the official British claims about a effective “extended-readiness”), and will be maybe ? soon scrapped around 2011/2013.

Finally the HMS Ark Royal will be retired immediately by November 2010/april 2011 (instead of 2014) and probably scrapped around 2013/2018.

HMS Illustrious ended definitively their light AIRCRAFTS-carrier career since 2009, but their final fate (in any case, end of hull-life reached by late 2010’s…) remain uncertain, because currently under a final refit at Rosyth shipyard (13 month, 40 £ million, ended by early 2011) to be usable (helico-carrier) until late 2015…but…under the current 2010 SDSR, a choice will be made between HMS Illustrious and the helico-carrier HMS Ocean to see which of the two is the better helicopter platform (only for the next 6/8 years, because in any case, both ships reached the end of their usefull life by 2018…).

But the final choice may be not easy...
If HMS Ocean is 16 years younger than the HMS Illustrious, has a stern vehicles ramp and already has the necessary equipment to carry helicopters, vehicles and troops = currently a far more better helico platform than the Illustrious… Unfortunately, the HMS Illustrious is nearly ended a last (costly) refit. British politicians may be tempted to finally choose the illustrious (story to avoid showing that the 40 £ million put into the Illustrious refit were not “wasted”…), and thus send the HMS Ocean in mothballed status (and likely to be scrapped or sold aboard by 2015/2018).

A “second-hand” sale of HMS Illustrious toward a foreign navy were very unlikely but a “second-hand” sale of HMS Ocean remain possible.

Up to 2 Queen Elizabeth (the white elephants ?)
The problem with these two ships is that their futures will be +/- sealed (in RN service) only in the next 2015/2016 SDSR. But various facts are already certain and various options are possible…

HMS Queen Elizabeth:
As expected since early 2010, the future of the HMS Queen Elizabeth will be finally (partially…) secured. Now “too expensive to cancel”, this ship was currently in advanced building process (blocks buildings, MT-30 turbines being delivered…). Now two majors options are possible…

- HMS Queen Elizabeth to be +/- nearly completed as expected (but without “sky-jump ramp”) as a very large helico carrier (with +/- 12 Merlin, 6 Apache & few others utility helico + troops), commissioned by 2016 (in fact a indirect HMS Ocean replacement…) and FULLY used by the RN (to be retired by 2046+) or ? rapidly mothballed when the HMS Prince of Wales enter service ?

- Or HMS Queen Elizabeth delayed by 2+ years and completed as a CATOBAR carriers with catapults (+ 500/800 £ million) by 2019+ and….used by Royal Navy (to be retired by 2050) or sold aboard ? (France/Brazil/India ?)

HMS Prince of Wales:
The HMS Prince of Wales will be finally built (a surprise for me, YES, I ADMIT)….but now with 1+ year of delays and additional cost (+/- 500/800 £ million per ship) to fit 2 catapults as a CATOBAR carrier and likely to carry F-35C or F/A-18 E/F, and sometime few French Rafales (in event of more deeply bilateral cooperation). Currently on very early building process (work starting on 1st engine). To be commissioned by 2020, with a probable +/- 40 years of service expected, to be retired around +/- 2060. In event of a Royal Navy service, it now become clear that this ship will normally operate just 1 squadron of 12 F-35C (she can carry up to 36…) and in any foreseeable future, no more than +/- 18 UK F-35C…

To be honest with you, for me, there's no doubt, the Royal Navy can no longer afford to have 2 large 60 000 tons carriers, each with 1500 sailors and 24/32 F-35C……

For the final destiny of these both ships (fully used by RN or mothballed or sold aboard), wait the next years (2011/2016) and the next “2015/2016” SDSR……amen !

Foreign sales of one or both vessels…a very hard task…

With the growing inability of the Royal Navy to use in the future these two large ships, persistent rumors appear on an opportunity to sell 1 carrier aboard: The only countries capable (FINANCIALLY SPEAKING) to buy one CVF are:

France:
The French Navy wants a second carrier, but the finances/internal policy continuously delayed the project. The final choice on the PA 02 will be made by 2011/2012. If the french cancel construction of PA02 (built in french shipyard), the could be use occasionally a british carriers (few Rafales onboard), or they might be tempted to buy one of the two CVF (but in this case, in compensation, the Royal Navy must imperatively ordered some newer fleet tanker at a french shipyard…)…wait & see…

Brazil:
The Brazilian Navy want to replace their ageing aircraft carrier (1960’s Sao Paulo, Former French Foch) by 1 or 2 newer carriers by 2018/2025. If the British negotiators/politicians manage to convince Brazilians, they could sale one CVF by 2014/2019….wait & see…

India:
The Indian Navy planned to acquire 3 carriers in the next 10 years. If the 44000 tons "Vikramaditya" (former Russian "Gorshkov") will be delivered in 2012, the 40 000 tons "Vikrant " (Indigenously built) will be delivered by 2014. The Indians are planning to receive by 2018/2020 a third but more larger/capable carrier (50000+ tons, catapults). This project may appear a major opportunity for some british to sell one CVF to the Indian Navy…
But this option is not very easy, because the Indians are ALREADY in the process of designing their OWN 50 000 tons carrier, and don’t forget that the cost of the Indian 40 000 tons indigenous Vikrant carrier, currently under construction in southern India, is expected to be a third of the cost of the 65,000 tons HMS Queen Elizabeth, while the future Indian 50/60 000 tons carrier (maybe to be named INS Vishaal ?), will cost less than half of its British equivalent…wait & see…

Russia:
Russian Navy wants to have 3-6 newer aircraft carriers by 2050. But the state of its shipyards could seriously slow down or stop this (very/too ambitious) project. The sale of a British CVF would be financially feasible but much more complex politically. This deal could be done only if Russia chooses to be radically more closer to NATO policy (a major shift in russia policy during this 21st century)…wait & see…

China:
China continued its OWN studies on aircraft carriers. It seems very doubtful/unlikely that it wants to buy a British carrier.

+/- 1 Helico-Carriers (between short/long term solution…)
1 (0?) Ocean 22 000 tons, 203 meters, hull derived from the Invincible light carrier. Built on civilian standard, commissioned by 1998, with +/- 20 years of service expected, in any case, to be retired by 2018. Very unlikely to be replaced by a newer LHD and maybe, at the best, replaced by the HMS Queen Elizabeth (at a LPH version).

Naval Airwing (you may be ready for the worst)
Now, the handful of last Harrier will be retired by april 2011.

With the astronomical cost of the F-35B (150+ $ million each), the British are now forced to abandon it in favor of a more conventional aircraft. If currently the final choice is not “definitively official”, it appears certain that the F-35C will ultimately chooses. At the best case, we are moving to around +/- 40/50 UK F-35C commissioned by 2020/2023 (to compare with initial +/- 138/150 F-35B commissioned by 2012+…). It is clear that this figure +/- condemns the HMS Queen Elizabeth (24/36 F-35 onboard one CVF) as a PURE aircrafts-carrier….

For cons, the hope of many RN fan’s for the opportunity to purchase 20/40 additional F-35C after (2018/2030) the actual financial crisis is clearly a dream (with a cost that will continue to grow…inflation, ect ....). In the best case, a small purchase/order ”batch” of 10/15 aircraft by 2025/2030 will be made to compensate F-35C “life-attrition” (aircraft accidents/crash, wear). These F-35C, which came into service by 2020/2023, will have a life of +/- 30 years and will be retired by +/- 2052. …But…

Obiously, this whole affair is linked to the future of the 2 CVF…. But more worrying, some concerns arise about the possibility that in the coming years (2011/2016), the RAF finally impose the F-35A, equivalent to condemn definitively the british naval aviation…WAIT & SEE…

Naval Helicopters (fewer and…fewer…)
Few Sea-King ASaC.7 (AEW) :
Now very ageing helico, to be replaced by 2018. Some rumors emerge about the possibilities to convert 8 (of the 28 expected to be modernized as a HM2 standard) Merlin as a AEW helico...

+/- 28 Future-Lynx (ASW/SAR) :
60 originally planned early 2000's, now 28 expected to be received by 2015/2018, to be retired during 2040’s.

+/- 28 EH-101 :
44 initially commissioned by 1997-2002, now 28 Merlin are scheduled to be updated to HM2 standard (= others used as spare-parts or reserve status ?). (Some rumors that 8 of the 28 HM2’s would be used as AEW helico (Sea-King Asac Mk7’s replacement…). With probable +/- 30 years of service, to be retired around 2027/2032.

Naval Aircrafts (any future, except ? for the UAV…):
The 9 Nimrod-MR4 (+2 test aircrafts) initially expected to be received around 2012/2014 were now finally cancelled. With a fantastic waste of money (3 £ billion), because the 1st aircraft were ready, 3 more were 90% complete !!! and the five others +/- 40% completed...

AAW Destroyers (6)
6 Daring
(Daring, Dauntless, Diamond, Dragon, Defender, Duncan), 7500 tons, 152 meters, highly effective AAW destroyers (to replace obsolete type 42 AAW destroyers) but suffered from serious delays, cost-overruns, initial troubles (AAW missiles) and severes critics (the famous “fitted for but not fitted with”……). Commissioned by 2010/2013, with probable 30+ years of service, to be retired by 2040/2043. These AAW destroyers will probably receive some “second-hands” CIWS Phalanx withdrawn from the retired Type 42 destroyers, but it becomes increasingly likely that these AAW DDG will never receive Harpoon or Tomahawk missiles…

Toward 0 type 42
(Liverpool, Manchester, York, Gloucester, Edinburgh), now obsolete 4000 tons AAW destroyers, all to be retired by 2013.

ASW Frigates (17 in 2010, 13 by 2012 and +/- 6/10 ? by early 2030…)
From 4 to 0 Type 22
The 4 ageing frigate of "type 22" (Cornwall, Cumberland, Campbelton, Chatham), effective ASW ships thought the 1990’s but now ageing, relatively expensive to operate (250 sailors per ship), will be retired soon by April 2011 !

13 Type 23
(Argyll, Lancaster, Iron Duke, Monmouth, Montrose, Westminster, Northumberland, Richmond, Somerset, Sutherland, Kent, Portland, St Albans). 4800+ tons, 133 meters. Very effective ASW ships but now progressively ageing. All to be retired by 2023-2036 and replaced by fewer Type 26 frigates. But the next 2015/2016 SDSR maybe could threaten some ships…

6 to 10 ? type 26 ?
These new class of 6000 tons frigate were currently under study. But it is already clear that the 13 frigates of the Type 23 will never be replaced at “one for one basis”. At the worst, only 6 type 26 should be built or at the best, 8-10 type 26 built, all by 2022/2036…wait & see…

Mine-Hunters/Patrols Boats (toward a single modular design by 2020’s ?)
+/- 8 Sandown
(Walney, Penzance, Pembroke, Grimsby, Bangor, Ramsey, Blyth, Shoreham). 484 tons, 52 meters, commissioned by 1992/2001, with probable +/- 30 years of service, to be retired around 2022/2030.

+/- 8 Hunt
(Ledbury, Cattistock, Brocklesby, Middleton, Chiddingfold, Atherstone, Hurworth, Quorn). 750 tons, 60 meters, commissioned by 1980/1989, with probable +/- 30 years of service, to be retired around 2010/2019.

In fact, it become clear that the current british mine-countermeasures fleet (+/- 15 units) were far too bigger under the current/futures british needs (likely around +/- 6/8 MCM SPECIALIZED). It is highly probable that some of these currents MCM will be used in future as a patrol boats.

3 Rivers
(Mersey, Severn, Tyne), 1600+ tons, 79 meters, commissioned by 2003, with probable 25+ years of service, to be retired around 2028 and likely to be partially replaced by few C3 ships.

1 Improved Rivers
(Clyde), 1800+ tons, 81 meters, commissioned by 2007, with probable 25+ years of service, to be retired by 2032 and likely to be partially replaced by a C3 ship.

Up to x ? C3
All of these Mine-Hunters/Patrol boats were expected to be replaced by a common class of +/- 2000 tons flexible warships (able to be used as a mothers ships, mine-warfare and overseas patrols). This C3 concept, currently under initial study, was derived (and are a “scaled-down” version) from the C1/Type 26 frigate. But it is already clear that the 16 mine-hunters and the 4 patrols boats (20 ships) will never be replaced at “one for one basis”. At the worst, only +/- 10/12 C3 should be built or at the best, +/- 16 C3 built, all by 2022/2033, and very likely half built as a MCM version and the other half as a ocean patrol boat/mothers ships.

Possible designs: BMT Venator or BAE or others ?

+/- 5 Hydrographics Vessels:
1 Gleaner
28 tons, 15 meters, commissioned by 1983, with probable +/- 30 years service life expected, to be retired by early 2010’s likely without replacement.

1 Scott
13500 tons, 131 meters, commissioned by 1997, with probable 30 years of life, to be retired around 2027

2 Echo
(Echo, Enterprise), 3400+ tons, 90 meters, commissioned by 2003. With probable 25+ years of service life, to be retired around 2030 and maybe indirectly replaced by a C3 corvette.

1 Endurance :
6000+ tons, 91 meters, commissioned by 1991, Probably damaged beyond repair (30/50 £ million of repair cost ?). Maybe ? replaced by a ex Norwegian ice patrol ship leased or other ?

16 Others Smalls:
14 Archer P2000
(Archer, Biter, Smiter, Blazer, Puncher, Charger, Ranger, Trumpeter, Express, Example, Explorer, Exploit, Tracker, Raider). 49 tons, 20+ meters. Commissioned by 1985-1998, with probable +/- 20 years of service expected, to be replaced around 2015/2028, likely by fewer small ships (+/- 12?).

2 Scimitar
(Scimitar, Sabre), 24 tons, 16 meters. Commissioned by for Gibraltar use.

+/- 7 SSN Submarines (now a real need for 6)
Up to 7 Astute
(Astute, Ambush, Artful, Audacious, Agamemnon, Anson, Ajax), 7800 tons, 97 meters. Commissioned by 2010/2022, with probable 25+ years of service life, to be retired by 2035/2050. Remember that the Royal Navy initially expected (2002) to build 9 Astute (to replace 5 olders Swiftsure SSN and the 4 most ageing Trafalgar SSN: the 3 most younger Trafalgar will be initially expected to be replaced by late 2010’s by the Astute successors), this figure fall to 8 by 2005……Now, 7 Astute’s are expected in fact to replace all remaining ageing british SSN (Swiftsure’s/Trafalgar’s) The 7th Astute were secured, (in reality) not for the Royal Navy, but in fact for the British shipyards/industry. Indeed, with the delays taken for the Vanguards SSBN replacement, the 7th Astute was finally authorized with the main objective to avoid losing strategic skills in submarine construction (construction of the 7th Astute through 2015/2022 ensure the technological/industrial “transition” between the Astute SSN and the future SSBN X).

6 Trafalgar
(Turbulent, Tireless, Torbay, Trenchant, Talent, Triumph). 5200 tons, 85 meters, improved/enlarged from Swiftsure design. Commissioned by 1984/1991, all expected to be progressively retired trough 2011/2022.

1 Swiftsure
(Sceptre), 4400/4900 tons, 83 meters. Last remaining SSN of the Swiftsure class, This last ship will be retired very soon by late 2010 and replaced by the 1st Astute.

SSBN Submarines (or gives the “(very) hotly potatoes” to the next PM…)
4 Vanguard
(Vanguard, Victorious, Vigilant, Vengeance), 15/17 000 tons, 149 meters, commissioned by 1994/2001, with 25 years of life expected, need initially to be replaced by 2021/2026, but…

Now the recent SDSR create some planning changes:

Changes for the Vanguard’s (last longer, with fewer missiles/warheads onboard)
- The 4 Vanguard’s will see their lives extended by +/- 6 years (HMS Vanguard to be now retired by 2028), and this, at a cost of 1,2/1,4 £ billion
- Reduction of the number of operational missiles on each submarine (from 16 to 8 !) and reduce the number of warheads onboard each SSBN from 48 to 40. These changes will start to take effect over the next few years (likely by 2011/2015)

Changes for the British Nuclear arsenal
- Reduction of “operationally available warheads” from 160 (currently) to no more than 120.
- Reduction of overall british nuclear weapon stockpile from 225 (currently) to no more than 180 by mid 2020’s.

Changes for the futures British SSBN (X)
- The next generation of British SSBN will carry only 8 operational missiles tubes.
- The 1st future British SSBN will enter service by 2028 (to be laid down by +/- 2022?).
- Work on detailed design for these future SSBN begin by late 2010.
- A decision on submarine number (3 or 4) would be required around 2016 (= after the next British general elections).
- The missile compartment onboard these future ships will be a common design with the future next US SSBN (X).

Amphibious (toward a reduced fleet)
From 2 to 1 Albion
(Albion, Bulwark), 18/21 000 tons, 176 meters, LPD design. Commissioned by 2003/2004, with probable 25/30+ years of service expected, to be retired around 2028/2034. But now the HMS Albion will be retired soon by 2012 (ie officially in “extended readiness”).

From 4 to 3 Bay
(Largs Bay, Lyme Bay, Mounts Bay, Cardigan Bay), 15000+ tons, 176 meters. Medium LPD design built on civilian standards. Commissioned by 2006/2007, with probable 25+ years of service, to be around 2030, except HMS Largs Bay, to be prematurely withdraw by 2012.

Small Amphibious (small but effective !)
4 Overcrafts
4 Griffon 2000 TDX s.

13 LCU (estimation)
3 Mk-9 (701, 705, 709)
10 Mk-10 (1001, 1002, 1003, 1004, 1005, 1006, 1007, 1008, 1009, 1010).
Maybe some replaced by PASCAT fast landing ships ?....wait & see...

+/- 30 LCVP (estimation)
9 Mk-4
21 Mk-5.

RHIB & others (81, estimation)
46 ORC.
19 RIC.
16 IRC.

6 Swimmers Delivery Vehicles (estimation)
3 Mk8 Mod-1 SDV 12 (+6?).

RFA Auxiliary’s (a overwhelming concern…)
2 “Wave Knight”
(Wave Knight, Wave Ruker), 31500 tons, 196 meters. Commissioned by 2003, with probable +/- 30 years of service, to be retired around 2030.

2 “Rovers”
(Gold Rover, Black Rover), 7/11000 tons, 140 meters. Commissioned by 1974. Now ageing ship, likely to be retired by early/mid 2010’s.

2 “Fort Rosalie”
(Fort Rosalie, Fort Austin), 18/23000 tons, 185 meters cargo/repairs ships. Commissioned by 1978/1979. Now ageing ships to be retired through the 2010’s.

From 2 to 1 “Fort Victoria”
(Fort Victoria, Fort George), 32000 tons, 203 meters replenishment oiler (originally intended to supply type 23 frigates in North Atlantic ops). Commissioned by 1993/1994, with +/- 30 years of service expected, to be retired by mid 2020’s but, at a very bad news (these ships is relatively +/- young), the HMS Fort George will be prematurely retired soon as possible under the current SDSR budget cut.

From 2 to 1 “ Leaf"
(Bayleaf, 37000 tons, commissioned by 1982 and Orangeleaf, 33000 tons, commissioned by 1984). Now ageing ships, HMS Bayleaf likely to be retired soon as possible under SDSR budget cut and HMS Orangleaf during 2010’s. Very likely these two ships were likely not to be replaced, because their “fuel-only role” (moving of fuel between overseas location) has largely been taken over by civilian contractors.

1 “Digilence”
(Digilence), 11 000 tons, 112 meters very strategic repair-ships, commissioned by 1984, with probable 30+ years service live, to be retired during 2010’s decade. Very likely to be not directly replaced and more likely to be “indirectly” replaced by some repairs-ships capabilities onboard the next generation of British fleet tanker.

1 Argus
(Argus), 28000 tons, 175 meters. Now nearly ageing, used as hospital ship (initially intended to be able to carry Harrier). Commissioned by 1988 in the “aftermark” of the Falkland experience. Very likely to be not “directly” replaced and partially replaced by some “hospital capabilities” onboard the next generation of british fleet tanker.

6 Point class (cheap, a future secured !)
(Hartland Point, Anvil Point, Hurst Point, Eddystone, Longstone, Beachyhead). 23 000 tons max, 193 meters Ro-Ro ships. Commissioned by 2002+, all are available to the UK at very short notice if required. To be used until late 2020’s.

In fact, looking the current and any foreseeable (£) situation of the Royal Navy, it seems almost certain that +/- 8 now ageing (1970’s/1980’s) large auxiliary’s vessels (Argus, Digilence, the two “Leaf”, the two “Rovers”, the two “Rosalie”) will be replaced by only 4 to 6 newer versatile large Replenishment/Fleet tanker ships.

And perhaps even worse. A desire to standardize (for a single class of future Fleet tanker, as opposed to the 7 types of existing vessels......), the British government might be ? tempted by 2018/2024 to retire prematurely the 2 "wave’s" class fleet tanker and sell them abroad

Up to 6 ? future fleet tanker ?
The possible successors of the stillborn MARS program ?, possible designs:
- British BMT Aegir 18/18R/26 designs ? (17 to 26 000 tons)
- British Roll-Royce NVC 14000/25 000 tons design
- French “Brave” 30 000 tons flexible design (a future French/British collaboration ?)
- Dutch JSS flexible design (a future Dutch/British collaboration ?)
- A civilian built leased (or converted) ships ?
- A newer British design ? (doubfull)
- A Italian (fincantieri) 18000 or 27 000 tons designs (built aboard)
- A South-Korean design (built aboard, to reduce cost ?)

In terms of flexibility (Fleet tanker/Cargos/Repair/Hospital capability), the “Brave” & “JSS” designs are perhaps the best position ...Wait & see…

Royal-Marines (estimation)
- +/- 7000 troops.
- 150 BvS-10 Viking Armored vehicles.
- 81mm mortars
- 4 amphibious overcrafts Griffon 24 RRC
- 6 Lynx Mk 7 helicopters

When you see the number of times this special corps was in danger of being incorporated into the British Land Army, it is no longer any doubt that its future (independence) is threatened...

In resume:
in a desperate attempt to save his two future aircraft carriers, the Royal Navy is currently being sacrificed:
- Likely 1 LPH
- 1 large LPD (officially in “extended readiness”…)
- 1 medium LPD (Largs Bay)
- 4 ageing Frigates (Type 22)
- +/- 2/3 auxiliary/various ships
- serious down size of futures naval airwings/helico + the early retirement of the two remaining Invincible light carriers and the withdrawal of the last Harriers.

But these sacrifices are only the “middle-part” (first major sacrifices initiated by 1998/2005……). In the next major round of cuts (around 2015/2017, in the next SDSR, usually just after the next British general election), the Royal Navy would probably lose again:
- up to 1 CVF ? (sold aboard ?)
- up to 3 or 4 Type 23 frigates.
- up to 6 ageing mine-hunters.
- up to 5+ other auxiliary’s.
And all of these, without direct replacement…

And more worse, the latter SDSR (by +/- mid 2020), could may be ??? seal the fate of the Royal Navy as a REAL large blue water navy. But perhaps even more worrying is the “Image/Reputation” of the royal navy in united kingdom which is the source of all serious concerns (I do not even talk over the stranding of HMS Astute, engine failure of HMS Daring or cyber-attack of the Royal Navy Website…). Because if the politicians (remember that David Cameron does not want the 2 aircraft carriers, their continuations is just the fact that the contract has been hardened by BAE (= too expensive to cancel) and the british people turn away from it (RN) completely, then its future is in jeopardy

Finally, I apologize for the lack/delays of “fleet-review’s” posting, but unfortunately, some serious personals problems (unemployment…) prevent me from writing more seriously (deeper/longer analysis) on this blog. Hoping that 2011 has better….

As usual, It may be that in my opinion, I forgot programs ? (or made few mistakes ?), then said it ! Feel free to comment and give your opinion !

Next Fleet Review: Future of the Mexican Navy