Future of the Canadian Navy

With the door of the artic ocean expected to be completely open by late 2030’s (by ice melt), don’t forget this new Nordic challenge !

CANADIAN NAVY:

15 Destroyers/Frigates (likely to drop to 8/12 by late 2020's):

12 Halifax Frigates

(Halifax, Vancouver, ville de quebec, Toronto, regina, Calgary, montreal, fredericton, winnipeg, charlettetown, st john’s, Ottawa), 4700 tons ASW oriented ship, commissioned by 1992/1996. With probable 30 year service life expected, to be retired by 2022/2026.

3 Iroquois destroyers

(Iroquois, Athabaskan, Algonquin), 5100 tons ASW destroyers, commissioned by 1972, heavily modernized by 1990’s. Likely to be not directly replaced by a newer Canadian surface combatant ships.

These 2 classes of ships should be replaced by a new common frigate/destroyers class by late 2010’s/late 2020’s. By cons, it is very likely that these 15 current ships are replaced by larger (5000/6000 tons) and fewer (8 to 12) new ships. Possible design contenders:

- British type 26 (or a "canadianized" version of the type 26) or C1/C2 "concept".

- French Fremm (6000 tons) or FM 400 (4000 tons).

- Or a Canadian indigenous design ?

Current others foreign design (US, German, Spanish, Italian) were unlikely.

12 Patrols boats (likely to drop at 6/8 by 2020’s decade):

12 Kingston PB's

(Kingston, Glace Bay, Nanaimo, Edmonton, Shawinigan, Whitehorse, Yellowknife, Goose Bay, Moncton, Saskatoon, Brandon, Summerside), 970 tons patrol boats, commissioned by 1996/1999. With probable 25+ year service life. To be retired by 2021/2024. Some serious rumors rise by early 2010 that this ship class will be reduced by half in event of budget cuts, this situation prove the Canadian disregard about current small/coastal warfare.

4 Submarines:

4 Victoria SSK

(Victoria, Windsor, Corner Brook, Chicoutimi), 2200 tons SSK submarines, initially in service with Royal Navy by 1990/91, re-commissioned by Canadian navy by 2000/2004. This class suffered from considerable problems in initial Canadian service. With a probable 25+ year service life expected, to be retired by 2020’s-early 2030’s. A replacement programe were currently really "dubious" and in +/- serious doubts...

2 Fleet Tanker ships:

2 Protecteur class

(Protecteur, Preserver), +/- 24 000 tons fleet tanker, commissioned by 1969/1970. Now completely worn out and to be retired by mid 2010’s and replaced by 2 newer "JSS" (Joint Support Ship). Official option for a 3th "JJS" ship were clearly a big joke and any real hope to have this third ship were real (this fleet tanker project replacement suffered from delays/cost-overuns since 2008).

9 Training ship:

1 Oriole class

"Oriole", 92 tons sailing ship, commissioned by 1952.

8 Orca class

(Orca, Raven, Caribou, Renard, Wolf, Grizzly, Cougar, Moose), 210 tons, likely to be dual purpose (training/light patrol ship), commissioned by 2006/2008.

2 Fireboats:

2 "fire" class fireboats

(Firebrand, Firebird), 140 tons.

11 Tugboats:

5 Glen class

(Glendyne, Glendale, Glenevis, Glenbrook, Glenside), 250 tons.

1 Tilicum

"Tilicum", 140 tons.

5 Ville class tugs

(Lawrenceville, Parksville, Listerville, Merrickville, Marysville), 45 tons.

10 Auxiliary ships:

2 Auxiliary torpedo/sound ranging vessels

(Sikanni, Stikine).

3 Yard diving tenders

2 Sechelt class (Sechelt, Sooke), 1991.

1 Granby.

5 Yard auxiliary

(Pelican, Gemini, Pegasus, Albatross, Blackduck).

CANADIAN COAST GUARDS:

2 heavy Artic-Icebreakers:

1 “Louis.S. St-Laurent” type, 11400 tons, commissioned by 19­­69. These replacement project likely delayed until late 2010’s...

1 “Terry-Fox” type, 4200 tons, commissioned by 1992, with +/- 30 years service life, to be retired by mid 2020's.

4 Artic-Icebreakers:

2 Amundsen class ("Amundsen”, "Des Groseilliers"), 5900 tons, 98 meters, commissioned by 1979/1982.

1 « Henry Larsen », likely a improved "amundsen" design, 6100 tons, 100 meters, 1987.

1 « Pierre Radisson », 1978.

+/- 7 light icebreakers/buoy support vessel:

2 "Ann Harvey" type (« Ann Harvey », " Sir William Alexander), 3800 tons, 83 meters, 1987.

1 “Edward Cornwallis”.

1 “George R Pearkes”, 1986.

1 “Griffon”, 2200 tons, 71 meters, 1970.

1 “Martha L Black”, 1986.

1 “Sir Wilfrid Laurier”, 5000 tons, 83 meters, 1986.

These 1970/1980's ships were expected to be replaced by a new group of +/- 6 or 8 new artic OPV.

2 Offshore Fishery & oceanographic research ships:

1 “Hudson”, 3400 tons, 92 meters, 1963. To be replaced by a newer 90/100 meters ship by early 2010's.

1 “John P Tully”, 1985.

4 Offshore Fishery science:

1 “Alfred Needler”, 950 tons, 50 meters, 1982

1 “Teleost”, 1988.

1 “W E Ricker”, 1978.

1 “Wilfred Templeman”, 1981.

These 4 ships were currently replaced by 3 newer 67 meters ships commissioned by 2010/2012.

5 Marine service

1 “Bartlett”, 1300 tons, 57 meters, 1969.

1 “Earl Grey”, 1986.

1 “provo Wallis”.

1 “Samuel Risley”, 1900 tons, 69 meters, 1985.

1 “Tracy”.

4 Offshore patrol:

1 “cape Roger”, 1200 tons, 62 meters, 1977.

1 “Cygnus”, 1200 tons, 62 meters, 1982.

1 “Leonard J Cowley”, 1200 tons, 62 meters, 1984.

1 “Sir Wilfred Grenfeld”, 2400 tons, 68 meters, 1987.

7 Mid-Shore patrol vessel:

(Arrow Post, E P Le Quebecois, Gordon Reid, Harp, Louis M Lauzier, Louisbourg, Tanu), 37/49 meters.

9 newer mid-shore patrol vessel (derived from the 42 meters Damen Stan 4207 patrol vessel design) were under deliveries (all received by 2012).

6 Hydrographic survey ships:

“Frederick G Creed”.

“ Limnos”, 44 meters, 1968.

“ Matthew, R B Young, Otter Bay, Vector”, 1960’s.

4 Special naval tenders:

(Dumit, Eckaloo, Nahidik, Tembah).

6 Mid shore fishery research ships:

(Calanus II, Neocaligus, Opilio, Pandalus II, Shamook, Shark (retired 2009)).

3 new Inshore Fisheries Science Vessel (two 18 meters and one 24 meters ships) were under delivery (all received by 2011).

2 Channel survey/sounding vessel:

(F C G Smith, GC-03).

5 Overcrafts:

2 type 400 AP1-88 ACV (Sipu Muin, Siyay).

1 type 200 AP1-88 ACV (Waban-Aki).

2 others (Mamilossa, Penac).

36 Motor Lifeboats (+/- 15 meters):

36 "cape" class motor life boat.

Others small boats:

(navigation vessel; some RHIB (Zodiac Hurricance Mk IV, V, VI, 733, 753 solas designs)).

A project for 98 newer very small crafts/boats/barges were under study to replace ageing small auxiliary crafts/harbor barges.

Canadian Naval aviation (Navy), estimations:

+/- 27 Helico:

- 27 CH-124 Sea King, 1960’s era helico, to be replaced by 28 newer CH-148 Cyclone.

+/- 21 Aircrafts:

21 CP-140 Aurora (18 CP-140, 3 CP-140A), in service since 1980-1990’s. Some aircrafts were now under modernization.

Canadian Naval Aviation (Coast-Guards), estimations:

+/- 27 Helico:

- 16 Bo-105; 2 Bell 407; 4 Bell 212 Huey; 6 Bell 206 Jet Ranger; 1 Sikorsky S-91.

+/- 7 Aircrafts (survey and pollution surveillance)

- 2 de Havilland Dash 8; 3 Beech Super King B200; 1 De Havilland DHC-6 Twin Otter; 1 De Havilland Dash 7.

and, of course, don't forget the recent "official" "30 years canadian shipsbuilding plan" (even if it is already a big joke, so the future foreseables budgets cuts will soon make it obsolete...)

Next editorial: Future of the South Korean Navy.

It may be that in my opinion, I forgot programms ? (or made few mistakes ?), then said it ! Feel free to comment and give your opinion !

Future of the US Light Surface Combattant Fleet

Between good and catastrophic idea’s…


+/- 58 FFG/MCM/PB’s, expected to be replaced by 55 LCS

30 Oliver.H.Perry class ASW Frigate (Now OPV)
(McInemey, Boone, Stephen W Groves, John L Hall, Jarrett, Underwood, Crommelin, Curts, Doyle, Halyburton, McClusky, Klakring, Thach, De Wert, Rentz, Nicholas, Vandegrift, Robert G Bradley, Taylor, Gary, Carr, Hawes, Ford, Elrod, Simpson, Reuben James, Samuel B Roberts, Kauffman, Rodney M Davis, Ingraham). Effective ASW frigate during late cold war, 51 originally build. The remaining frigates on US hands will have been converted for OPV use. Commissioned by 1979/1989, with 30 year service life expected, all to be retired by 2019 and replaced by some LCS.


14 Cyclone class patrol boats
(PC-1/14: Cyclone, Tempest, Hurricane, Monsoon, Typhoon, Sirocco, Squall, Zephyr, Chinook, Firebolt, Whirlind, Thunderboldt, Shamal, Tornado). 350+ tons patrol boats. Commissioned by 1993/2000, with probable 20/25 year service life expected. But current US Navy plan probably expect to retire +/- prematurely this class by early 2010’s (some likely to be transferred to foreign navy). To be partially replaced in the US Fleet by some LCS.

14 Avenger class Minewespeer (US MCM capabilities likely to rise by early 2020’s ?)
(Avenger, Defender, Sentry, Champion, Guardian, Devastator, Patriot, Scout, Pioneern Warrior, Gladiator, Ardent, Dextrous, Chief). 1300 tons, commissioned by 1987/1994. With probable 25+ year service life, all to be retired by 2012/2019 and replaced by some LCS fitted with MCM modules (24 MCM modules officially expected).

In fact, these 3 class of ships (30+14+14= 58 ships) are scheduled to be replaced by a single new common modular class of 55 ships, the LCS…


Up to 55 Littoral Combat Ships, or the fatal error…
Early 1990’s/2001: A initial great idea or the return to the naval littoral warfare !
In the aftermark of the cold war, with some new kind of conflicts around the world, the concept of littoral warfare resurfaced (especially the “Street-fighter” concept, a 500/800 tons fast, stealthy craft intended to dominate enemy littoral’s) rise up.

2001/mid 2003: Very trendy, many design study and some hope for a smaller 300/800 tons design…
By mid 2001, some US warships study look for a 500 tons design. The LCS is intended to be a cheap (220 $ million max), fast (40+ knots) and +/- light (up tp +/- 2000/3000 tons), hightly automated (40/75 sailors) surface combatant that is to be equipped with modular “plug-and-fight” mission packages. The LCS’s primary intended missions are antisubmarine warfare (ASW), mine countermeasures (MCM), and surface warfare (SUW), particularly in littoral waters. Others missions include peacetime engagement/partnership-building operations, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) operations, maritime intercept operations, operations to support special operations forces, and homeland defense operations.

By late 2002/early 2003, severals designs were seriously studied for the LCS concept :
- A +/- 120 meters, 3000 tons Trimaran hull design, from Bath Iron Works/General Dynamics/Austal. Gibbs & Cox.
- A +/- 115 meters, 3000 tons advanced 3000 tons semi planning monohull design “Sea Blade” from Lockheed Martin. Marine Systems.
- A 72+ meters, 640 tons monohull stealthly design derived from the Swedish “Visby” corvette design, offered by Northrop Grumann/Kockums/HDW.
- Textron Systems offered this Hybrid Catamaran Air Cushion (HCAC) craft.
- A 47+ meters, 275+ tons, +/- similar to the Norwegian “Skjold” stealthly craft, offered by Raytheon.

Late 2003/2004: First (bad) design choices, growth in size, toward the disaster, and pathetic hopes for up to 82 ships…
By mid 2003, three preliminary designs were selected: The 3000 tons Trimaran hull from General Dynamics; the 3000 tons semi planning monohull hull from Lockheed Martin and the HCAC design from Textron Systems. By may 2004, the 2 final contenders selected was The Trimaran hull and the semi planning monohull, with the main goal to build up to 4 demonstrators ships before any final design choice.

2006/2010: The beginning of the joke !
Unfortunately, with the building of the first 2 demonstrator’s ships, some weakness (some even severe), begin to appear:

- Cost of the first 2 demonstrators ships rise even DRAMATICALY: LCS 1”Freedom”, from 220 to 637 $ million (+ 289%); LCS 2 “Independence”: from 220 to 704 $ million (+320%). This tremendous cost forces the US Navy to delayed/postponed the 2 others “demonstrators ships from 2007 to 2009. With this, one of the main advantages of the LCS, the affordability, disappeared….

- Delays, cost-overruns and even much worse (NLOS-LS) for some “combat modules”.

- The monohull design was clearly over-powered : 113 000hp for the LCS 1 “Freedom; but only 60 000hp for the LCS 2 “independence” (this difference were due to the better efficiency of the Trimaran hull design). Although with a sufficient range for littoral warfare, unfortunately a very too shorter endurance for effective long oversea deployment (1150 miles at 15 knots, 3350 miles at 18 knots for the LCS 1; and 1940 miles at 46 knots and 4300 miles at 20 knots for the LCS 2……..to compare with 4200 miles at 20 knots or 5000 miles at 18 knots for a O.H.Perry FFG).

- Some serious concerns about survivability in littoral environment (again supersonic or even future hypersonic cruise missile, very fast rocket propelled torpedoes, advanced mobile mine, improvised naval mine, suicide frogmen with limpet mine/charge, suicide midget submarines, suicide small fast crafts, improvised rocket). Don’t forget that the first 2 ships failed during shock hardening tests (ability to keep operating following an nearly underwater explosion) and even more worse, LCS-1 could be easily swamped when fully loaded.

- With too fewer crew, serious doubt rise about the capabilities for this very small crew (40 sailors + 35 max others with combat modules), to conduct efficient battle damage repairs on a +/- 120 meters, 3000 tons warship.

From 2010 to late 2020’s……
Although usually a mass warships building reduce the unit cost, growing warships cost and inflation will most likely keep the cost per furthers LCS above 600+ $ million, without combat modules…A final choice about the “winning design” (to be mass built) will be taken by mid/late 2010 by the US Navy.

In Fact the US Navy expect to build 55 LCS and 64 LCS mission packages (16 ASW, 24 MCM, 24 SUW). The current LCS shipbuilding program (incorporate the US Navy 30 year shipbuilding plan 2011-2040) is this :

2 LCS (LCS 1-2) ordered by FY 2005/2006, commissioned by 2008/2010, to be retired by 2032/2035.
2 LCS (LCS 3-4) ordered by FY 2009, commissioned by 2012, to be retired by 2037.
2 LCS (LCS 5-6) ordered by FY 2010, commissioned by 2013, to be retired by 2038.
2 LCS (LCS 7-8) ordered by FY 2011, commissioned by 2014, to be retired by 2039.
3 LCS (LCS 9-11) ordered by FY 2012, commissioned by 2015, to be retired by 2040.
4 LCS (LCS 12-23) ordered each year through FY 2013-2015, commissioned by 2016/2019, to be retired by 2041/2044.
3 LCS (LCS 24-35) ordered each year through FY 2016-2019, commissioned by 2019/2022, to be retired by 2044/2047.
2 LCS (LCS 36-45) ordered each year through FY 2020-2024, commissioned by 2023/2026, to be retired by 2048/2051.
1-2-1-2 LCS (LCS 46-58) pattern each year through FY 2025-2033, commissioned by 2028/2036, to be retired by 2053/2061. With the first 2 newer LCS(X) (LCS 56-57) ordered by 2032 and commissioned by 2035/2036.
2 LCS(X) (LCS 59-72) ordered each year through FY 2034-2040, commissioned by 2037/2043, to be retired by 2062/2068.

In fact, it is clear that despite the official 55 goal vessel requirement of the U.S. Navy, this reach, AT THE EXTREME BEST CASE (if any future budgets cuts/delays/cost overruns occurred during…….2012-2032……………), only around +/- 53 ships. Because with the current plan, the 55th LCS will be ordered by FY 2031 and commissioned by +/- 2034 (at the same time as the 1st LCS will be retired).

Toward a new LCS(X) design by earlier 2030’s
With a 25 year expected service life, the 55 currently planned LCS, to be commissioned around 2009-2034, was expected to be retired by 2032/2057 and progressively replaced (doubtfully at one by one basis) by a new generation of LCS(X) by early 2030’s (or a other replacement concept ?). There are probably 2 solutions:

A newer LCS(X) (a batch/Flight II or a improved design)
A radically different concept, maybe turned to the more valuable mother ship concept

In any case, the cost per copy for a future LCS(X) will be around 700+ $ million per copy (2010 estimates), but I think that by late 2020/mid 2030, final cost (with shipbuilding cost increase/inflation) reach around 1+ $ billion or even more…


Ocean Cutters (Ocean Patrol Vessels), down from 12 to only 8 by late 2010’s
12 Hamilton class national cutters
(WHEC-719/726: Hamilton, Dallas, Mellon, Chase, Boutwell, Sherman, Gallatin, Morgenthau, Rush, Munro, Jarvis, Midgett). 3250 tons cutters, Commissioned by 1967/1972. Originally with +/- 25 years of service, extended through the 1990’s to 35/even 40+ years. Now totally worn out and expected to be partially replaced by only 8 new Bertholf class cutters by 2009/2020.

8 future Bertholf class national cutters
(WMSL-750/757: Bertholf, Waesche, Stratton, Hamilton, others not yet named). 4500 tons cutter/frigate design. Flaws discovered during the construction of the first 2 ships (hull fatigue). Price: 4,7 $ billion for 8 ships (= 580+ $ million per copy, 2009 estimates), 30 year service life expected, This class, same as LCS, suffered from cost-overruns. Commissioned by 2008-2017.


Up to 28 Modular ships (toward a great improvement in naval warfare)
2 Demonstrator’s ships
Sea Fighter (FSF 1), 80 meters, 950 tons SWATH hull. Commissioned by 2005. Likely to be used extensively for trials and patrol boat purpose for +/- 20 years. To be retired maybe by 2025.

Swift (HSV 2), 98 meters, 1600+ tons full loaded, Hybrid catamaran. Commissioned by 2003. Likely to be retired during 2010’s and returned to civilian use.

A nearly similar but older ships (Joint Venture HSV-X1), was used for trials around 1998/2004 and retired from US Service and returned to civilian use. A another +/- similar ship (Westpac Express, HSV 4676), were loaned up to 2011. These 4 ships have served (or still serve) for extensive operational testing use. Following these tests, it was decided to acquire a standard class of more than 28 new JSHV.


Up to 28 JSHV (Joint High Speed Vessel), up to 28/41 by mid 2020’s.
Modular catamaran design, able for transport/logistic/and even patrol use, relatively cheaper (+/- 160/200 $ million per ship). With 20 year service life expected, to be commissioned by +/- 2013/2025, to be retired by 2033/2045 and replaced by a JSHV Block II (improved design) or maybe ? by a newer JSHV X design (procurement begin in FY 2030).
1 ordered each year through FY2009/2012; 2 ordered each year thought FY2013/2022, for a total of 24 JSHV (+ 5 others ordered by US Army). For a total of 41 JHSV procured over the next 30 year.

13 Ice capable ships, some concerns about their future…
2 Polar class icebreaker
(Polar Sea, Polar Star), 13200 tons, commissioned by 1976/1977.

1 Mackinaw class lake icebreaker
(Mackinaw), 3500 tons, commissioned by 2006

1 Healy class icebreaker
(Healy), 16 000 tons, commissioned by 1999

9 Katmay Bay tug icebreaker class
(Katmai Bay, Bristol Bay, Mobile Bay, Biscayne Bay, Neah Bay, Morro Bay, Penobscot Bay, Thunder Bay, Sturgeon Bay), commissioned by 1979-1988.

27 Medium OPV (1000/2000 tons range), grow in size and down in number by late 2010’s/early 2020’s
13 Famous class Endurance cutters
(WMEC 901-913: Bear, Tampa, Harriet Lane, Northland, Spencer, Seneca, Escanaba, Tahoma, Campbell, Thetis, Forward, Legare, Mohawk), 1800 tons OPV, 270 foot (82+m), commissioned 1983-1991. With probable +/- 30 year service life expected, to be retired around 2013/2021. Likely to be replaced by the later new 3200 tons Offshore patrol cutters.

14 Reliance class Endurance cutters
(WMEC 615-630: Reliance, Digilence, Vigilant, Active, Confidence, Resolute, Valiant, Steadfast, Dauntless, Venturous, Dependable, Vigorous, Decisive, Alert), 2 others already retired (Courageous, Durable); 1100 tons OPV, 210 foot (64m), commissioned by 1964-1969. Ageing vessel to be replaced by 2010’s by the early new Offshore Patrol Cutters

up to 24 new Offshore Patrol cutters
3200 tons, expected to be commissioned around +/- 2017/2028. With probable +/- 30 year service life.

Training ship
1 Eagle class sailing training ship (Eagle), commissioned by 1946 (ex german ship)

16 Juniper class Buoy tenders
(Juniper, Willow, Kukui, Elm, Walnut, Spar, Maple, Aspen, Sycamore, Cypress, Oak, Hickory, Fir, Hollyhock, Sequoia, Alder), 2000 tons, commissioned 1996- 2005.

120 Mid Shore Boats (20+ to 40 meters range), toward 129 by late 2010’s.
49 Island class built
110 foot (34 meters) (WPB 1301-1349), currently 41 still in service. 8 more in reserve (after a attempt to rebuild/enlarge them failed) and unlikely to return at sea. To be replaced by 46 new Fast Response Cutters (FRC-A), around 200 tons and 12 New Fast Response Cutters (FRC-B) (Sentinel class) Sentinel class, 350 tons, 46+ meters (154ft)

71 Marine Protector class
87 foot (27 meters), (WPB- 87333-87319), commissioned through 2000’s decade.

+/- 300 Small boats (12 to 20 meters)
117 (a total of 200 planned) MLB 47 (14 meters) foot class:
18/20 tons, commissioned 1997 to mid 2010’s

+/- 172 UTB 41 foot (12 meters) boats:
since 2008 these ageing small boats will be progressively retired and replaced by the Response boat medium (47 foot, 13+ meters) through 2008-2018 As mid 2010, 28 to 96 boats delivered, 180 expected

+/- 1200 Very Small Boats (4 to 11 meters)
The Coast Guard operates a grand total of +/- 1,400 small boats, defined as any vessel less than 65 feet (20 meters) in length (the shortest is 12 feet (4 m)) which generally operate near shore and on inland waterways. This 1200 very small boats include:

33 Long range interceptor:
(11 meters RHIB) expected Many 25 foot (8 meters) transportable port security boats, commissioned since 1997.

91 Short range prosecutor:
(7 meters RHIB)

500 response boat small:
(25ft), since 2003, (470 for USCG, 20 for department of homeland security and 10 for US Navy).

US Riverine Force (estimations)
Currently 3 squadron with a total of +/- 36 RHIB, small boats.


US COAST GUARD
Aircrafts:
- 27 HC-130
- 3 Casa HC-144A
- 1 Gulfstream

Helico:
- 35 HU-25A Guardian
- 35 HH-60J
- 102 HH-65
- 8 MH-68

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My personal opinion about a future US light surface combatant fleet (US Navy & US Coast Guard), better to have:

+/- 40 Oceanic Patrol Boat (light frigate, 200+ miles and beyond, long overseas deployment capable, for sea presence):
2 possible hull designs:

A +/- 3500 tons monohull design built on civilian standard with great automation (to save procurement/operational cost), for excellent seakepping quality and long endurance (for excellent overseas deployments). Armed with a 76mm gun fore, one or two 20 or 25mm gun (Phalanx or Mk 38) aft, up to six 12,7mm machines guns, with hangar for 1 helico. With a self defense capability againt aerial/submarines asymmetrical threats (4/6 short range SAM manpads AAW missile, a cheaper sonar and special weapons againt midgets submarines). Capacity for 2/3 RHIB and 12/15 commandos/special forces. Likely to cost around 150/200 $ million.

Or a more flexible 3000/4000 tons catamaran design (improved JHSV design), likely slightly more expensive (+/- 200/300 $ million) than a conventional monohull design but with a greater modularity. Able to be used as Oceanic patrol boat, small logistic ship, small helico carrier, mothers ship & so. With a combat module fore (for a 76mm gun or 20/30mm gun or self protection missiles, with up to six 12,7mm machines guns around the hull, with a large helipad aft for 2/3 helico/UAV. A vast Internal hangar for 2/3 dozens of vehicles or 2/3 helico/UAV, capacity for 3-4 RHIB or UUV/SUW unmanned vehicles.

+/- 28/38 pure Littoral combatant ships (much smaller/cheaper/effective than the current LCS……):
A +/- 500/800 tons (50/80 meters) monohull or catamaran modular design (with “plug in” combat modules, similar to the Danish STANFLEX concept). With high speed (45+ knots), high agility/manoeuvrability, shallow draft, enough small to be carried by much bigger ships (on LHD/LPD/LSD well decks or on deck aboard big auxiliary logistics US ships or civilian ships loaned, as “mothers ship concept”) near the operational aera. Able to be reconfigured very quickly (few days) in 2 versions:

- Surface warfare : heavily armed with one 76mm gun fore, one 20 or 25mm gun aft (Phalanx or Mk 38 gun), up to four 12,7mm machines guns, central module for up to 4 SSM Harpoon, up to 15 small anti-ships missiles (similar than NLOS-LS), up to 6 short range SAM missiles manpad, aft small helipad for small UAV use, aft modular internal room with capacity for 2 RIHB (10/12 commandos/special forces) or 2 SUUVW.

- Under-waters Warfare (ASW, Mines): with one 20 or 25mm gun fore (Phalanx or Mk 38), up to four 12,7mm machines gun/gatlins, aft modular room with capacity for sonars/UUV vehicles/MCM devices/ASW torpedoes.

+/- 45 off-shore patrol boat (OPV, for up to 200 miles US EEZ aera patrol’s):
A +/- 1000/1800 tons monohull design, built on civilian standard with great automation (to reduce drastically procurement/operational cost). Armed with a 25/35mm gun fore (Mk38 or others), with up to six 12,7mm machines gun, hangar for 1 light helico and UAV, capacity for 2/3 RHIB and 10/12 commandos/special forces.

+/- 130 Mid Shore patrol boats (MPV, up to 60/100 miles patrol’s):
A +/- 300/400 tons monohull design, built on civilian standard with great automation (to reduce drastically procurement/operational cost). Armed with a 25/30mm gun fore (Mk38 or others), up to four 12,7mm machines guns, very small UAV capable, capacity for 2 RHIB and up to 10 commandos/special forces.

+/- 350 Coastals Patrol Boat’s (CPB, up to 12 miles patrol’s):
A +/- 18/25 tons monohull design, built on civilian standard with great automation (to reduce drastically procurement/operational coast). Capable to carry one or two machines guns and 1 RHIB with 5/8 commandos/special forces.

+/- 1000 Inshore/Waterways patrol’s boats Massive use of RHIB.

Next editorial (likely around early september): Future of the Canadian Navy.

It may be that in my opinion, I forgot programms ? (or made few mistakes ?), then said it ! Feel free to comment and give your opinion !

Future of the Italian Fleet

With fewer and bigger ships…in the trend ...but with a interesting "Mosquito" fleet !

2 Light Aircraft-Carriers (toward a +/- slightly improved capabilities by late 2010’s)
1 “Cavour” class aircraft carrier:
"Cavour", 27 000 tons, cost +/- 1,5 € billion (+/- 2 $ billion). Commissioned by 2009, with probably +/- 33/35 years service life, to be retired by 2040/2044.

1 “Guiseppe Garibaldi” class aircraft carrier:
“Guiseppe Garibaldi”, 13 000 tons, commissioned by 1985, with +/- 30 years service life, to be retired around 2015 and replaced by a new 20 000 tons LHA (same design as the 2 new expected LHD but with much more enhanced aviation capabilities= F-35 full capable).

Naval Aviation (very concerned by the F-35…”saga”/problems/cost):
Aircrafts:
- 17 ageing AV-8B harriers (15 front line aircrafts, 2 training aircrafts) to be replaced by 22 newer F-35B (with 150/200 million € per copy = around 3,3/4,4+ € billion, a considerable effort from Italian finances….).
- Older maritime patrol aircraft already retired. Likely to be replaced in future by UAV.

+/- 108 Helico:
- 56 NH 90 (46 ASW, 10 transports) in order
- 22 EH 101 (8 ASW, 10 ASH, 4 AEW)
- 30 AB 212

4 AAW destroyers (some doubts about 4 full AAW ships by mid 2020’s…)
2 “Orizzonte” class:
"Andrea Doria, Caio Duilio", commom 6700 tons AAW DDG design with French navy; Cost 1,5+ € billion for 2 ships. Very capable AAW ships. Commissioned by 2007/2010, with probable 30/35 years service life expected, to be retired by 2037/2045. Initially 2 others expected by early/mid 2010’s to replace +/- prematurely older “Durand de la Penne” DDG but now, serious doubt rise about the Italian capability (€/$) to build these 2 furthers expensive ships (now +/- 1 billion € per unit).

2 “Durand de la Penne”:
"Luigi Durand de la Penne, Francesco Mimbelli", 5400 tons, commissioned by 1993, with probable 30 years service life expected, to be retired by 2023. Maybe to be replaced by 2 new Orizzonte (+/- doubtful) or maybe by 2 AAW enhanced ships derived from the newer Bergamini FFG class ?, or, at the worse, not replaced (because the newer “Bergamini” have few AAW capabilities…)

12 ASW frigates (to down to 10 or at the extreme worst only 6 ? by late 2010’s)
8 “Maestrale”:
(Maestrale, Grecale, Libeccio, Scirocco, Aliseo, Euro, Espero, Zeffiro). 3100 tons, Much enlarged Artigliere design. Commissioned by 1982/1985, with +/- 30 years service life (for few ships, extended to 35+ years to last until late 2010’s), to be retired by 2012/2020.

4 “Artigliere/Lupo”:
(Artigliere, Aviere, Bersagliere, Granatiere), 2800 tons, light ASW frigates, commissioned by 1977, with probable +/- 30 years service life, to be retired very soon, all by early 2010’s.

Officially these 2 class (12 ships: 8 maestrale + 4 lupo) was expected to be replaced by :

10 newer 6000 tons “Bergamini” class FFG
(nearly common FFG frigate designed with France) in 2 models (6 “GP”= General purpose and 4 “ASW”= Anti submarine warfare), 1 ship commissioned each years from 2012 to 2021. But some serious doubts rise about the real final number of ships really to be built by 2021:
- A 1st batch of 2 ships were already under construction: “F 590 ? Bergamini”(GP), commissioned by 2012 and “F 591 ? Margottini” (ASW) by 2013.
- A 2st batch of 4 ships (3 ASW, 1 GP: F 592-595 ?), apparently a secured order, will be delivered by 2014/2017.
- A 3rd batch of 2 ships (GP: F-596/597 ?) maybe ? ordered by 2013, to be delivered by 2018/2019.
- A 4th and final batch of 2 ships (GP: F-598/599 ?) ordered by 2015, to be delivered by 2020/2021 or, at the worse, finally not ordered or ordered but with a modified design (AAW enhanced) to replace ageing “Durand de la Penne” ???

18 Corvettes/OPV (to drop to +/- 15 by early 2020’s)
8 “Minerva”:
(Minerva, Danaide, Urania, Sfinge, Driade, Chimera, Fenice, Sibilla), 1280 tons,commissioned by 1987/1989, with probable +/- 30 years service life expected, to be retired around 2017/2022.

4 “Cassiopea”
(Cassiopea, Libra, Spica, Vega), 1475 tons OPV, commissioned 1989/1991. With probable 25/30 years service life, to be retired by 2014/2021. I think that it is probable that this 4 “Cassiopea” and the 8 “Minerva” (all from the same 1987/1991 era), will be maybe replaced by a new single common class ? (OPV ?) of only 6/10 new ships.

2 “Sirio”:
(Sirio, Orione), 1500 tons OPV, commissioned by 2003/2004. With probable +/- 30 years service life, to be replaced around 2033.

4 “Comandanti”: (Comandante cigala fulgosi, comandante Borsini, comandante Bettica, comandante Foscari), 1500 tons OPV, slightly improved and stealthier version of Sirio, commissioned 2002/2004, with probable 30 years service life expected, to be replaced around 2033.

It is very likely that around 2033, the 6 ships of the “Sirio/Commandanti” class’s will be replaced by a new single/common advanced design.

4 “Esploratore”:
(Esploratore, Sentinella, Vedetta, staffeta), commissioned by 1998/2000. Likely to be replaced by 2020/2025.

12 Minewespeer (toward only 6 to 8 by mid 2020’s ?)
4 “Lerici”:
(Lerici, Sapri, Milazzo, Vieste), 620 tons, commissioned by 1985, with probable 30 years service life, to be retired by mid 2010’s decade, very likely without replacement.

8 “Gaeta”:
(Gaeta, Termilo, Alghero, Numana, Crotone, Viareggio, Chioggia, Rimini), 700 tons, slightly improved Lerici, commissioned 1994/1996, with probable 30 years service life, to be retired by 2024/2026 and likely to be replaced by 6 to 8 new modular/flexible ships.

Amphibious Fleet (Fewer and bigger "gator's" by late 2010’s)
3 “San Giorgo”:
(San Giorgo, San Marco, San Giusto), 8000 tons light LPD/LHD, commissioned 1987/1994, with probable 25+ years service life expected, to be retired around 2014/2018 and replaced by 2 new and bigger 20 000 tons LHD.

+/- 36 Small landings crafts:
- 2 “appoggio incursori », 97 tons, Mario Marina, Alcide Pedretti
- 9 “MTM 217”, 65 tons
- 5 “LCM”, 56 tons
- 20 “MTP 96”, 14 tons (LCVP type)

6 Submarines (maybe down to 4 by late 2010’s…)
2 “Todaro”:
(Salvatore Todaro, Sciré), German type 212 design, commissioned by 2006/2007. 2 more were planned by 2013/2014 to replace ageing Sauro (III or IV or both ?).

2 “Sauro IV”:
(Primo Longobardo, Gianfranco Gazzana Priaroggia), commissioned by 1993. To be replaced (or not...) by early 2020's.

2 “Sauro III”:
(Salvatore Pelosi, Guilano Prini), commissioned by 1987/1988. To be retired by mid/late 2010's and replaced by the 2 newer expected type 212 SSK.

3 Fleet tanker:
1 "Etna":
"Etna", 13400 tons, commissioned by 1998, to be retired around 2028.

2 "Stromboli":
"Stromboli", "Vesuvio", commissioned by 1976/1979. To be retired during 2010's and replaced by 2 new fleet tanker (very likely a much improved "Etna" design)

12 Small transports ships
4 "Panarea " (Diesel/oil small tanker):
(Panarea, Linosa, Favignana, Salina).

2 "Ticino" (Water transports):
(Ticino, Tirso).

6 "Gorgona" (Coastal Vehicle transport ships):
(Gorgona, Tremiti, Caprera, Pantelleria, Lipari, Capri)

2 special ships
1 "Anteo" (Submarine rescue & salvage ship)
Anteo, 3500 tons, commissioned by 1980. Expected to be retired during the 2010’s and replaced by a new ships.

1 "Elettra" (Electronic warfare ship)
Elettra, 2960 tons, commissioned by 2003.

3 Trials ships
2 Trials ships of 330 tons
(Rosseti, Martelota), commissioned by 1986.

1 Weapons test ships
Ex ageing frigate Carabinieri (alpine class), likely to be retired after extensive weapons/sensors test.

3 Hydrographic/oceanographic vessels
2 “Ninfe” class
(Aretusa, Galatea)

1 “Magnaghi” class
(Magnago)

Training ships:
4 Small navigational training ships
177 tons, ex ageing (1957) small coastal minewespeer converted (Astice, Mitilo, Porpora, Murena).

4 Sailing training ships
various design and displacements: Amerigo Vespucci, Palinuro, Stela, Italia, Orsa maggiore, Capricia.

+/- 35 Tugs (estimations)
8 ocean tugs
6 "Ciclope" class, 660 tons and 2 "Atlas" class, 750 tons.

11 harbour tugs
9 "Porto" class, 412 tons and 2 "Ischia" class, 297 tons.

32 small harbor tugs
32 "RP" class, 76/120 tons.

5 Auxiliary support fleet ships:
5 “Ponza” class
(Ponza, Levanzo, Tavolaro, Palmaria, Procida), 580 tons, commissioned by 1988/1990.

----- Guardia Costiera (Italian Coast Guards)-----
6 Patrol boat
1 Saettia class
(Saettia), 393 tons.

5 Diciotti class
Slightly improved “Saettia class” (Diciotti, Dattilo, Fiorillo, Peluso, Corsi), 395 tons.

9 Small patrol boats
4 Cavallari class
(Cavallari, Pennetti, Fachin, Magliano)

4 Scialoja class
(Mazzinghi, Scialoja, Lolini, Grabar)

1 Ingianni class
(Ingianni)

+/- 225 small Motor boats, 6-15 tons range (estimations)
(51 class CP 2083; 65 class CP 542; 2 class CP 601; 12 class CP 702; 13 class CP 803; 25 class CP 816; 9 class CP 830 Guibileo; 48 class CP 841).

+/- 50 inshore/midshore patrol boats, 16-50 tons range (estimations)
(5 class CP 2203; 6 class CP 255; 4 class CP 262: 28 class CP 271 AGA; 4 class CP 318; 3 class CP 456).

+/- 212 RHIB (estimations)
184 class GC 166; 28 class GC A01

Guardia Costiera: Naval aviation (estimations)
+/- 11 helico
(SAR: 9 AB 412, 2 AW 139)

+/- 10 maritime patrol aircraft
(7 P 166; 3 ATR 42)

-----Carabinieri (Military police)-----
Severals RHIB, Zodiac & small patrol boats (CC 267, CC 614, CC 623, CC 627, CC 630, CC 710, CC 807, CC 814, CC 820, CC 822, EI G 321, PS 1063, N 521, N 705…).

-----Guardia di Finanza (Finance guards)-----
Various small patrols boats, RHIB.

-----Polizia di Stato (state police)-----
Various RHIB and small patrols boats (PS 489, 498, 545, 554, 1062, P86…)


If larger units (destroyers/frigates/corvettes) will see their numbers lowered (and their sizes grow). We too easily forget that the Italian Navy has a considerable number of small units (Off-shore patrol vessels, Mid-shore patrol vessels, In-shore patrol vessels…).

These small units, extremely effective in small/shallow/restricted Mediterranean seas (Adriatic Sea, Ionian Sea, Ligurian Sea, Tyrrhenian sea), represent a great advantage for the Italian Navy against low end threats (Drugs, smugglers, traffics, illegal immigrants, terrorists).

Next editorial : Future of the US light surface combatant force.

It may be that in my opinion, I forgot programs ? (or made few mistales ?), then said it ! Feel free to comment and give your opinion !

Future of the US Carrier's & Gator's Fleet

Too many, too expensive, too “crew expensive”, too old design, too big. Better to design a radically new smaller flattops design family !

+/- 11 US “White-Elephants/Dinosaurs”...use Nimitz/derived Nimitz hull design through 2070’s/even 2080’s ?, a FOLLY !……7/8 ships is a more REALISTIC (strategically, tactically, politically, financially) fleet…

1 CVN of the Enterprise type
1st nuclear powered carrier in the world.
- CVN 61 Enterprise, commissioned 1961, to be retired late 2012 after a last one very expensive foolish ! overhaul in 2008/2009 (more than 663 $ million compared with a initial 453 $ million estimate cost……this only for one or a doubtful two last deployement…). To be replaced by the 1st CVN 78 class (USS Gerald.R.ford) by 2015.

3 CVN of the Nimitz class batch-I
Nuclear powered improved and enlarged version/successor to the “CVA 67 USS John F Kennedy”. With 50 years service life expected. Heavily/Expensively modernized during there mid-life refit (RCOH):
- CVN 68 USS Nimitz, commissioned 1975, RCOH 1998/2001, to be retired by 2025. Likely to be a possible target ? for a prematurely retirement in the next major fleet cuts around 2012-2019 ?
- CVN 69 USS Dwight-D-Eisenhower, commissioned 1977, RCOH 2001/2005, to be retired by 2027. Maybe a possible target ?? for a prematurely retirement in the next major fleet cuts around 2012-2019 ?
- CVN 70 USS Carl-Vinson, Commissioned 1982, RCOH 2005/2009, to be retired by 2032.

5 CVN of the Nimitz class batch-II (Theodore-Roosevelt sub-class)
Slightly improved Nimitz (With improved armor and several minor improvement). With 50 years service life expected:
- CVN 71 Theodore-Roosevelt, commissioned 1986, RCOH on the way, 2009/2012, to be retired by 2036.
- CVN 72 Abraham-Lincoln, commissioned 1989, RCOH expected 2012/2015, to be retired by 2039. Maybe prematurely retired toward the late 2010’s decade if the next major fleet cuts cancel this expensive RCOH ?
- CVN 73 George-Washington, commissioned 1992, forward deployed CVN, RCOH expected around 2015/2018, to be retired by 2042. Maybe prematurely retired toward the late 2010’s decade if the next major fleet cuts cancel this expensive RCOH ?
- CVN 74 John-C-Stennis, commissioned 1995, RCOH maybe expected around 2018/2021, to be retired by 2045.
- CVN 75 Harry-Truman, commissioned 1998, RCOH maybe expected around 2021/2024, to be retired by 2049.

2 CVN of the Nimitz class batch-III (Ronald Reagan sub-class)
Slightly improved Theodore.Roosevelt sub-class (with modified island, several minors improvements). In fact, this 9th and 10th were +/- a “transitional sub-class ship” between Nimitz and Gerald.R.Ford class. With 50 years service life expected.
- CVN 76 Ronald-Reagan, commissioned 2003, RCOH maybe expected around 2026/2029, to be retired by 2053.
- CVN 77 George-H-W-Bush commissioned 2010, RCOH maybe expected around 2033/2036, to be retired by 2060.

And the US Navy was planned to build:

3 CVN of the Gerald R Ford Class
Directly derived from the Nimitz class/sub-class’s, but with many major/minor improvements (new island design, fewer and newer deck lift, newer nuclear reactor, newer electrical catapults, a slightly crew reduction). With 50 years service life expected.
- CVN 78 USS Gerald-R-Ford, to be commissioned by 2015, RCOH maybe expected around 2038/2042, to be retired by 2065.
- CVN 79 (not yet nammed), ordered by 2013, to be commissioned by 2020/2021, RCOH maybe expected around 2044/2047 and retired by 2070. Maybe to replace, in the fleet, at the worse, the early retired USS Nimitz if severe budgets cuts occurred during the 2010’s.
- CVN 80 (not yet nammed), ordered by 2018, to be commissioned by 2025/2026, RCOH maybe expected around 2048/2051, to be retired by 2074/2075. Officially to replace the USS Nimitz by 2024/2025, but if fleet cuts occurred and that the Nimitz was prematurely retired. It is clear that in fact the CVN 80 replace CVN 69 Dwight-D-Eisenhower around 2025/2027.

After CVN 80, great question ?...
The current US Navy’s 30-year (FY2011-FY2040) shipbuilding plan calls for procuring one newer big carrier every 5 years through 2010’s-2040 :
- (CVN 81 ?) ordered in 2023 and commissioned around 2030, to replace CVN 69 Dwigh. Eisenhower or more likely CVN 70 Carl Vinson.
- (CVN 82 ?) ordered in 2028 and commissioned around 2035, to replace CVN 70 Carl Vinson or more likely CVN 71 Theodore-Roosevelt.
- (CVN 83 ?) ordered in 2033 and commissioned around 2040, to replace CVN 71 Theodore-Roosevelt or more likely CVN 72 Abraham-Lincoln.
- (CVN 84 ?) ordered in 2038 and commissioned around 2045, to replace CVN 72 Abraham-Lincoln or more likely CVN 73 George-Washington.

Although more CVN was planned through 2040 under the current plan, he is NOT TOTALLY SURE that the following carriers (CVN 81……) are from the CVN 78 class !

Expected future cuts in the US carrier’s fleet ?…
Facts: The cost of these CVN, a major concern……
If the lastest Nimitz carrier (USS George.H.W.Bush) cost +/- 7 $ billion, the 1st Gerald-R-Ford cost +/- 14 $ billion (R & D include) and the 2 next reached +/- 10/12 $ billion per copy. For this, in 2009 it was decided to build a new carrier only every 5 years (rather than previously every 4 years). In fact, with cost escalation/inflation, its become clear than by late 2010’s/early 2020’s, the cost of a later 100 000 tons CVN 78 class ships reach easily +/- 15 $ billion (or even worse….)

And even the cost of there mid-life modernisation (RCOH) is a major concern…
- The 1998/2001 RCOH for the USS Nimitz cost +/- 1,8 $ billion.
- The 2005/2008 RCOH for the USS Carl Vinson cost +/- 3,1 $ billion.
- The 2009/2012 RCOH for the USS Theodore-Roosevelt was expected to cost +/- 3,3 $ billion…

Probables scenarios:
But with future probable expected cuts in the US fleet. The temptation may be very great to disarm prematurely 1 or 2 carrier’s (even 3 ? at the maximum) without replacement :
- Either to retire prematurely the earlier ageing Nimitz’s CVN.
- Either to cancel the heavy and expensive mid-life modernization (RCOH) of 1 or 2 later Nimitz’s planned through 2010’s decade (CVN 72 Abraham-Lincoln, RCOH expected 2012/2015 or CVN 73 George-Wahsington, RCOH expected around 2015/2018) and, by result, accelerate their prematurely retirement without “direct” replacement by the late 2010’s decade.
- Maybe more likely a mix, retire prematurely the USS Nimitz and cancel the RCOH of one CVN planned during 2012-2019 period (CVN 72 or CVN 73 ?).
- Either to cancel the procurement of a one or two CVN 78 class (very doubtful, because the construction of these vessels provided a lot of work to U.S. shipyards and avoid a lost of strategic skills).

And although larger ships have many advantages over smaller:
- More able to withstand torpedoes, bombs, missiles damages.
- Bigger and higher hull, for better seakeeping quality.
- Larger fuel tanks, for longer range/autonomy.
- More bigger = more politicaly/deterrent effective (is 90 000 tons of diplomacy).
- Larger hull = larger hangar = larger airwing.
Infortunatly the rising cost of big CVN will push the Americans to slow down their buildings. But this is not a long term solution. In fact, it becomes clear that in future, with UAVs is increasing onboard, with a 100,000 tons ship cost +/- 15 $ billion (or even much more by 2020’s), a VERY strong need for reducing expensive crew and newer threats capable of sinking large ships. The need to develop new, smaller , advanced (and survivable) vessels will be felt…

Smaller ships have fewer but interesting advantages:
- Cheaper ship.
- Very much lesser “crew expensive”.
- +/- usually more "manœuvrable".
- Smaller hull = usually more stealthy.
- More cheaper = able to be built in greater number = more sea presence.

With future trend in aircraft cost (trend expected to last very long), a smaller airwing has not longer a disadvantage, because with very high aircraft cost, even the big carrier’s don’t be able to carry a full airwing (+/- 80/90 aircraft), currently only 65/70 aircraft on board Nimitz’s and in foreseable future, will expect to carry only 50/60 aicraft per 90 000 tons CVN, a lot of folly ! To do this, why have big carrier’s (which can carry up to 90 aircrafts) if you can afford only much smaller airwing.

My opinion: Better to have only +/- 7/8 smaller (but better, advanced, automated, stleathly) new 58/68000 tons “pure” aircraft carrier design

Personnaly, I think that the better solution was to stop the CVN 78 class and buy smaller and cheaper ships : ideally, finish the CVN 78 (because this ship is “now too in advanced building process and too expensive to cancel”), but stop immediately work on CVN 79/80 and begin to study smaller CVN alternative’s for a 1st ship commissioned by 2020/2022, ideals characteristics:
- A smaller “pure” 58/68 000 tons nuclear powered aircraft carrier design, around 278/290 meters length.
- Extremely and Radically much less “crew expensive” than older designs (+/- 5000 sailors for a US Nimitz; +/- 4500 sailors for the newest US Gerald R Ford); With likely only around 1000/1500 sailors for a “pure” new advanced +/- 60000 tons aircraft carriers, +/- similar (in size terms) to the lastest british Queen-Elizabeth design.
- A very advanced design, much more “stealthy” than a Nimitz or a Gerald-R-Ford (Hull, island, noise propulsion…).
- Very likely with a monohull (a more radically advanced catamaran or trimaran hull were unlikely because probably reach a ASTRONOMICAL cost), maybe with a wave piercing hull ?, likely with a radicaly new integrated/compact/stealthy island and clearer hull/superstructures.
- With a slightly smaller airwing than the current Nimitz Airwing (Currently onboard Nimitz’s, +/- 65/70 aicrafts), maybe around 40/55 aircrafts/helico/UAV in this new medium carrier.
- Full UAV capable.
- With probably 2 or 4 conventionnal shaft or even pods ?
- With probably the newest nuclear reactor (similar than onboard CVN 78 class), without need for a expensive refueling during their mid-life refit.


+/- 9/10 US Gator’s (LHD/LHA), use the 1968’s Tarawa hull design through late 2050’s/early 2060’s ?

2 LHA of the Tarawa class
40 000 tons, 1st major pure big helico-carriers/amphibious ships with well decks. Initially (1970’s) with 20 years service life, during 1990’s extended to +/- 30/33 years service life expected. Now, some U.S. politicians trying desperately to reduce the decline of the fleet, are lobbying to keep these 2 last ageing ships for a another decade. But it is very likely that it can succeed.
- LHA 4 Nassau, commissioned 1979, to be retired by 2012/2013.
- LHA 5 Pelelieu, commissioned 1980, to be retired by 2012/2013.
In fact, these 2 ships will be replaced by only one new ship, the USS LHA 6 America by 2012/2013.

8 LHD of the Wasp class
41 000 tons, slightly improved “Tarawa” design (clearer full fligh deck, flight deck lift moved for better aviation movement onboard, modified island). The 8th and final ship of this class (USS Makin-Island), incorporate some improvement in propulsion and others systems (in fact, this 8th ship, cost +/- 2 $ billion, is a transitional ship between Wasp and America class). With a probable 35 full years service life expected (maybe likely extended to +/- 38/40 years for some ships if the US Navy desperately want to reduce the fall of the fleet size or.....for a few others (likely the most ageing vessel), if future budget cuts fleet occurred, 1 or 2 oldest ships will be prematurely retired ?).
- LHD 1 Wasp, commissioned 1989, to be retired by 2024/2029. Likely to be replaced by LHA 9 (if any fleets cuts/early retirement occurred before…).
- LHD 2 Essex, commissioned 1992, to be retired by 2027/2032. Likely to be replaced by LH(X) 1.
- LHD 3 Kearsage, commissioned 1993, to be retired by 2028/2033. To be partially replaced or not by LH(X) 2.
- LHD 4 Boxer, commissioned 1995, to be retired by 2030/2035. To be partially replaced or not by LH(X) 2.
- LHD 5 Bataan, commissioned 1997, to be retired by 2032/2037. To be partially replaced or not by LH(X) 3.
- LHD 6 Bonhomme-Richard, commissioned 1998, to be retired by 2033/2038. To be partially replaced or not by LH(X) 3.
- LHD 7 Iwo-Jima, commissioned 2001, to be retired by 2036/2041. To be partially replaced or not by LH(X) 4.
- LHD 8 Makin-Island, commissioned 2009, to be retired by 2044/2049. To be maybe replaced (or not ?) by a additional/improved LH(X) “5” or by a newest LHA(X) design/concept ?
In fact, it become clear that this entire class of 8 ships will be replaced by +/- 7 new ships (3 LHA 6 America class, 4 LH(X)).

1 (up to 4) LHA of the America class
45000 tons, In fact, only slightly improved Wasp design (hybrid propulsion, enhanced aviation capabilities, without well decks for amphibious operation for the 1st ship, but very serious US Marines concerns about the lack of well decks probably means that later ships of this class will be modified to re-carry a well deck…=…additional costs…). With a probable 35 or 40 full years service life expected. Estimate cost per ship: 3,8-4,3 billion The current US Navy’s 30-year (FY2011-FY2040) shipbuilding plan calls for procuring 3 others LHA 6 class (by 2011, 2016, 2021) to replace progressively earlier ageing Wasp class.
- LHA 6 America, to be commissioned by 2012, to replace partially LHA-4 Nassau & LHA-5 Pelelieu. To be retired by 2042/2052.
- LHA 7 (not yet named), to be ordered by 2011, to be commissioned by 2016.
- LHA 8 (not yet named), to be ordered by 2016, to be commissioned by 2020/2021. US Marines hope that this ship “re-carry" a well decks…
- LHA 9 (not yet named), to be ordered by 2021, to be commissioned by 2026. Likely to “re-carry” a well decks.

In fact, don’t forget that all current US LHD/LHA design were DIRECTLY derived from the Tarawa LHA class (the 1st ship, USS Tarawa, was keel laid down in 1971, launched in 1973, in service by 1976), this means that the ship was designed around 1968 !!!

Toward 4 new LH(X) thought 2020’s/2030’s ?
The current US Navy’s 30-year (FY2011-FY2040) shipbuilding plan calls for procuring 4 LH(X) in the 2020’s/2030’s to replace progressively ageing later Wasp class:
- LH(X) 1 (not yet named). Ordered by 2025 ?
- LH(X) 2 (not yet named). Ordered by 2029 ?
- LH(X) 3 (not yet named). Ordered by 2033 ?
- LH(X) 4 (not yet named). Ordered by 2038 ?
The 1st ship, LH(X) 1 will be probably ordered by mid 2020’s, commissioned around 2030. The 3 “followers” will be ordered by late 2020’s/late 2030’s and commissioned by 2034/mid 2045. These 4 LHX will re retired by +/- 2065/2980.

Probable ship’s caracterictics:
- Very unlikely to use the Wasp/America hull, because, by 2020’s, when the first LH(X) would be authorized under the current plan, the initial Wasp/America hull design would be about 60 years old (issued from the 1968’s Tarawa hull). And I considers it unlikely that a hull ship design that originated in the late 1960’s will prove robust enough to accommodate changes designed to counter threats at sea until the 2070’s (when the LH(X)s would be reaching the end of their 35/40 year service life).
- Very probably to use a new hull design and likely a Monohull type (to reduce cost), because a much more advanced hull form (trimaran) probably each a astronomical cost.
- Probably +/- same size as the America class, 240/250 meters, 45 000/50 000 tons.
- Very likely to carry a radically newer island design (more compact/stealthy), with full phased array radar and integrated mast.
- Unfortunately, although its become clear than in future, crew reduction/ships automation will become a RULE (to save operational cost), I doubt seriously that in this future LHX design, the American engineers choose to radically reduce the ship crew (from +/- 1100 in Wasp’s to 380/500 sailors for example). I think that, in fact, the crew reduction in this LHX design will be only slight/moderate (from 1100 to 750/900).
- With two conventional centerline shaft or maybe pods ?
- Likely all electrics propulsions.
- Probably have some weight growth margin, modular/flexible design, for future upgrade.
- Probably armed with lastest CIWS system (Laser ?).
- Full UAV/UUV/SV capable.
- Very probably conventionally powered, and this, although through 2030’s/2070’s, with oil price up even dramatically, the cost-effectiveness of nuclear versus conventional propulsion rise again. Or even use “pure Green fuel” ?
- With cost escalation/inflation, likely to cost much more than a America class (current estimates: 3,5/4,3 $ billion). The future LHX likely reach around 5 billion $ per unit in the late 2020’s, without problems (or even much more ? 6/8 ?)…
- Very likely to replace not at “1 for 1 basis” the later Wasp class (through 2020/2030, AT THE BEST around 4 new LHX to replace +/- 5/6 later Wasp LHD).
- It is clear that this future program will be, like Wasp’s today, a major program for several decades (late 2020’s-late 2040’s) and that the design will be improved (likely 2 Flight/Batch). Maybe the earlier America's ships will be replaced by a improved LHX “batch 2” ? toward late 2040’s/mid 2050’s ?


My opinion: Better to have only +/- 8 NEW advanced (and modern, stealthy) 35 000/45 000 tons LHX design

Personnaly, I think that the better solution was to stop the LHA 6 America class and buy slightly smaller but cheaper ships : ideally, finish the LHA 6 America (because this ship is “now too in advanced building process and too expensive to cancel”), but stop immediately work on next LHA 7/8 ships and begin to study newer LHX alternative’s for a 1st ship commissioned by 2020/2022:
- A radically newer 33 000/48 000 tons, 240/250 meters monohull design (a catamaran or trimaran hull design, although more efficient, unfortunately probably reach a ASTRONOMICAL cost).
- Likelly with a full clearer flight deck and a smaller/compact/stleatlier island than on board the Wasp/America class.
- With a radically less expensive crew onboard (currently on Wasp’s, +/- 1100 sailors + 1800 troops on board), maybe around only 380/500 sailors + 1500/1800 troops onboard).
- Maybe with 2 conventionnal shaft but probably more likely 2 or 4 pods.
- With well decks (for amphibious use and avoid the LHA 6 class error of omitted the well decks).
- With fewer (and more costly) VSTOL aircraft, helico & UAV on board.
- Design type ?, probably heavily influenced by recent newest foreign design: (French "Mistral " design : 16/21000 tons, 199 meters, 18 knots, 160 sailors + 450/900 troops, 16 to 32 helico + up to 59 vehicles; Spanish "Juan Carlos I": 27 000 tons, 230 meters, 21 knots, 410 sailors + 900 troops, 20 to 30 helico + 40 vehicles; South-Korean "Dokdo": 14/18 000 tons, 199 meters, 23 knots, 700 sailors + 720 troops, 10 to 15 helico + one dozens of vehicles). Or even (on paper) others foreign design (Dutch "Enforcer 22000/30000" family or German "MRD 10 000/MHD 150 "family").

Without doubt a newer (and similar foreign style design) but much enlarged/bigger/robust US design (35000/45000 tons; 240/250 meters, 21/23 knots) will carry 380/680 sailors, 1500/1800 troops, 24 to 36 UAV/Helico/VSTOL aircrafts and 60/80 heavy vehicles + future LCAC(X).


US Naval Aviation, at...the crossroad...

US NAVY (estimations)
Fighters-Bombers:
F/A-18 Hornet : 1st delivered by 1983, last by 2000. +/- 408 active (late 2008): 74 F/A-18A; 26 F/A-18B; 286 F/A-18C; 47 F/A-18D. All to be replaced by +/- 340/480 F-35C through mid 2010’s/late 2020’s decade.
F/A-18 E/F Super-Hornet: 1st delivered in 1999, last around mid/late 2010’s decade. Currently around 332 in service (156 F/A-18E; 176 F/A-18F), a total of 515 expected by mid 2015. Likely to be replaced around late 2020’s/late 2030’s by a newer F/A-XX program.
Electronics-Warfare aircrafts:
- 81 ageing EA-6 B Growler to be replaced by 85 new EA-18 G around 2011/2014.
- 67 Hawkeye E2-C, to be replaced by newer E2-D.
Heavy helicopters:
- 30/36 MH-53E (mineweesper role).
- CH-46, to be replaced by 48 new OV-22 Osprey.
Maritime patrol aircrafts:
- +/- 130/170 ageing P3-C/EP3-E Orion, to be replaced by +/- 117 new expected P8 Poseidon through early 2010's/late 2020's decades.
Cargos/Transports aircrafts:
- 34 C-2A, maybe to be replaced by new OV-22 Osprey.
- 9 C-40A Clipper.
Training Aircrafts:
- 36 F-5 (26 F-5E; 4 F-5F; 6 F-5N).
- 49 T-6A.
- 229 T-34C.
- 52 T-44A.
- 218 T-45C .
Helico:
- 49 HH-60H (SAR).
- 119 MH-60 (10 LH-60R; 109 MH-60S) (Multi-purpose).
- 179 SH-60 (129 SH-60B; 60 SH-60F) (ASW).
- TH-57 (44 TH-57B; 85 TH-57C) (Training).
UAV:
- MQ-8 Fire Scout.

US Marine Corps (estimations)
Fighters-Bombers:
- 340 F-35 B expected to replace +/- 99 ageing AV8-B Harriers and +/- 238 (late 2008) F/A-18 A/B/C/D (1st delivered by 1983, last by 2000).
Attack helicopters:
- 167 AH-1W, to be replaced by 226 new AH-1Z.
Cargo/Transports helico:
- +/- 152/178 CH-53 D/E (late 2008), to be replaced by 227 new CH-53K by 2015/2022.
- 360 OV-22 Osprey expected.
- Ageing UH-1N to be replaced by 123 new UH-1Y by 2016.
Aircrafts Tanker:
- 29 KC-130J.

Obviously the severals problems faced by the F-35 make replacement of ageing aircrafts rather problematic (at the end, it is possible that less than half of the expected aircraft will be eventually delivered !)

Yes, I know, in this editorial, a few others auxiliary (Logistics, training) aircrafts/helico are absent (NU-1B Otter, C-12 Huron, C-20 Gulfstream, C-26 metroliner, C-37 Gulfstream, a few future acquisition programs) . But I do not have forgotten, I just lack time to fully complete this editorial. In the next update of it, I will complete (if you have more accurate data, share this !)


In resume,
its become clear that in a foreseeable future (2011-late 2040’s) it will be impossible and unsustainable (financially speaking) for the US Navy to :
- Maintain 11 big 90 000/100 000 tons CVN, each with 5000 sailors and 65/80 aicrafts on board….
- Maintain 10/11 big 40/45 000 tons LHD, each with 1100 sailors and 30/35 helico on board.
- Buy 550/600 F-35 B/C (especially with a 150-200 $ million per copy).

The US Navy needs to reconsider its plans and buy:
- Fewer
- Smaller
- More modern
design warships "Flattops".

Next editorial: Future of the Italian Fleet.

It may be that in my opinion, I forgot programs ? (or made few mistales ?), then said it ! Feel free to comment and give your opinion !